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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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