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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case so far. The Chinese have been importing record volumes of iron ore throughout the year, taking advantage of softening prices, which touched their lowest level in five years a few days ago. Firm supply from Brazil and Australia has also supported this trend. Both producers, with a combined global market share of over 70%, have been steadily increasing their production post 2000, mainly guided by the mandate of accelerating Chinese appetite.
The boom of economic development in China has in turn made the country “the gift that keeps on giving” for mineral exporters across the globe. Big iron ore producers have been speeding up their sup-ply post 2000, mainly relying on what seemed as a race by China to match its infrastructure with its growth, but somewhere along the lines the fact that the gradual westernization of China, would at some point translate into deceleration of steel consumption was probably overlooked by the market, which brings us to today.
The growth of steel consumption in the country turned red for the first time in over two decades. The slowdown in property construction has quickly curbed the domestic need for steel and consequent-ly iron ore to a significant degree, which translated to excess production of steel as well as increasing iron ore stockpiles. In turn prices for both commodities started sliding, kick starting a vicious cycle of downward pressure.
From one hand, iron ore production was not tamed by the big ex-porters in order to support prices. As big miners in both Australia and Brazil have designed their production capacity around an economy of scale model, cutting down their production to match softening demand growth has not been an option to them, while this also gave them the means to start squeezing the bottom line of their Chinese competitors. At the same time, the Chinese themselves remained buyers of iron ore, enticed by the new attractive price levels they have long desired, with local steel producers remaining active de-spite the fact that domestic demand had started to scale back significantly. That led to surging exports, with cheap Chinese steel flooding the markets, further weighing on global prices.
In both iron ore and steel markets the prospects remain dim, with no evidence suggesting that a reversal is imminent. November was the second lowest month of the year in terms of Chinese iron ore imports, while the country’s exports of steel surged to a record high. Exhausting the stallion of the developing economies in the “becoming a developed country” race, means that in the not so distant future, China could see its growing appetite for growth linked commodities squeezed further. It is often said lately that India or other developing economies could step up to fill in the demand gap created by China, but let’s not forget that history doesn’t always repeat itself.
The truth is that the world in which China emerged as the big economy it currently is, is a very different place today. Developing economies nowadays cannot rely on developed ones to accelerate their growth in the same degree they used to, as most of the latter still struggle themselves with ailing growth, while at the same time and even most importantly, the belief that free trade is always affected during periods of economic crisis is becoming more evident these days. India has persistently tried to promote the “Make in India” and although the policy has met little success so far, Prime Minister Modi has made the idea of stop relying on imports for some of the most important commodities and start using domestic reserves, his personal goal.
My opinion is that more countries will try to protect their domestic production amidst evidence that the path out of the economic crisis now appears longer than what we originally thought it would be. In doing so, they will have to allow for ample room for protectionism measures to be applied, setting limits on quantity and/or price of imports, in order to support domestic production instead, which is exactly the opposite of what the extrovert in nature shipping industry needs.
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the loomi ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
Monday, 18 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $58.60 FOR SEPTEMBER 2015; UP $4 FROM SEPTEMBER 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.27%) day on day and US$ 0.75 (-1.36%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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