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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case so far. The Chinese have been importing record volumes of iron ore throughout the year, taking advantage of softening prices, which touched their lowest level in five years a few days ago. Firm supply from Brazil and Australia has also supported this trend. Both producers, with a combined global market share of over 70%, have been steadily increasing their production post 2000, mainly guided by the mandate of accelerating Chinese appetite.
The boom of economic development in China has in turn made the country “the gift that keeps on giving” for mineral exporters across the globe. Big iron ore producers have been speeding up their sup-ply post 2000, mainly relying on what seemed as a race by China to match its infrastructure with its growth, but somewhere along the lines the fact that the gradual westernization of China, would at some point translate into deceleration of steel consumption was probably overlooked by the market, which brings us to today.
The growth of steel consumption in the country turned red for the first time in over two decades. The slowdown in property construction has quickly curbed the domestic need for steel and consequent-ly iron ore to a significant degree, which translated to excess production of steel as well as increasing iron ore stockpiles. In turn prices for both commodities started sliding, kick starting a vicious cycle of downward pressure.
From one hand, iron ore production was not tamed by the big ex-porters in order to support prices. As big miners in both Australia and Brazil have designed their production capacity around an economy of scale model, cutting down their production to match softening demand growth has not been an option to them, while this also gave them the means to start squeezing the bottom line of their Chinese competitors. At the same time, the Chinese themselves remained buyers of iron ore, enticed by the new attractive price levels they have long desired, with local steel producers remaining active de-spite the fact that domestic demand had started to scale back significantly. That led to surging exports, with cheap Chinese steel flooding the markets, further weighing on global prices.
In both iron ore and steel markets the prospects remain dim, with no evidence suggesting that a reversal is imminent. November was the second lowest month of the year in terms of Chinese iron ore imports, while the country’s exports of steel surged to a record high. Exhausting the stallion of the developing economies in the “becoming a developed country” race, means that in the not so distant future, China could see its growing appetite for growth linked commodities squeezed further. It is often said lately that India or other developing economies could step up to fill in the demand gap created by China, but let’s not forget that history doesn’t always repeat itself.
The truth is that the world in which China emerged as the big economy it currently is, is a very different place today. Developing economies nowadays cannot rely on developed ones to accelerate their growth in the same degree they used to, as most of the latter still struggle themselves with ailing growth, while at the same time and even most importantly, the belief that free trade is always affected during periods of economic crisis is becoming more evident these days. India has persistently tried to promote the “Make in India” and although the policy has met little success so far, Prime Minister Modi has made the idea of stop relying on imports for some of the most important commodities and start using domestic reserves, his personal goal.
My opinion is that more countries will try to protect their domestic production amidst evidence that the path out of the economic crisis now appears longer than what we originally thought it would be. In doing so, they will have to allow for ample room for protectionism measures to be applied, setting limits on quantity and/or price of imports, in order to support domestic production instead, which is exactly the opposite of what the extrovert in nature shipping industry needs.
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 09 September 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.207 MTN OF COAL IN AUGUST; TRADE VALUE AROUND $1.17 BILLION
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.17 billio ...
Monday, 08 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP UNDERPERFORMED LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.20 (-0.39%) day on day and US$ 1.60 (-3.04%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 08 September 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY JAN'15 CLOSED AT US$ 66.30 PMT W/E 5 SEPTEMBER 2014; LOST 5.15% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.23%) day on day and US$ 2.05 (-3.04%) week on wee ...
Monday, 08 September 14
CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORT DEMAND VERY STRONG - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: 30 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot iron ore market last week to haul iron ore import cargoes to Chinese buyers.
Acco ...
Sunday, 07 September 14
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE FIRM IN SPITE OF CAPE'S THIS WEEK'S WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: BDI up by 0.7 pct week on week and closed at 1155 points this week. The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that mea ...
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Showing 3496 to 3500 news of total 6871 |
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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