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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case so far. The Chinese have been importing record volumes of iron ore throughout the year, taking advantage of softening prices, which touched their lowest level in five years a few days ago. Firm supply from Brazil and Australia has also supported this trend. Both producers, with a combined global market share of over 70%, have been steadily increasing their production post 2000, mainly guided by the mandate of accelerating Chinese appetite.
The boom of economic development in China has in turn made the country “the gift that keeps on giving” for mineral exporters across the globe. Big iron ore producers have been speeding up their sup-ply post 2000, mainly relying on what seemed as a race by China to match its infrastructure with its growth, but somewhere along the lines the fact that the gradual westernization of China, would at some point translate into deceleration of steel consumption was probably overlooked by the market, which brings us to today.
The growth of steel consumption in the country turned red for the first time in over two decades. The slowdown in property construction has quickly curbed the domestic need for steel and consequent-ly iron ore to a significant degree, which translated to excess production of steel as well as increasing iron ore stockpiles. In turn prices for both commodities started sliding, kick starting a vicious cycle of downward pressure.
From one hand, iron ore production was not tamed by the big ex-porters in order to support prices. As big miners in both Australia and Brazil have designed their production capacity around an economy of scale model, cutting down their production to match softening demand growth has not been an option to them, while this also gave them the means to start squeezing the bottom line of their Chinese competitors. At the same time, the Chinese themselves remained buyers of iron ore, enticed by the new attractive price levels they have long desired, with local steel producers remaining active de-spite the fact that domestic demand had started to scale back significantly. That led to surging exports, with cheap Chinese steel flooding the markets, further weighing on global prices.
In both iron ore and steel markets the prospects remain dim, with no evidence suggesting that a reversal is imminent. November was the second lowest month of the year in terms of Chinese iron ore imports, while the country’s exports of steel surged to a record high. Exhausting the stallion of the developing economies in the “becoming a developed country” race, means that in the not so distant future, China could see its growing appetite for growth linked commodities squeezed further. It is often said lately that India or other developing economies could step up to fill in the demand gap created by China, but let’s not forget that history doesn’t always repeat itself.
The truth is that the world in which China emerged as the big economy it currently is, is a very different place today. Developing economies nowadays cannot rely on developed ones to accelerate their growth in the same degree they used to, as most of the latter still struggle themselves with ailing growth, while at the same time and even most importantly, the belief that free trade is always affected during periods of economic crisis is becoming more evident these days. India has persistently tried to promote the “Make in India” and although the policy has met little success so far, Prime Minister Modi has made the idea of stop relying on imports for some of the most important commodities and start using domestic reserves, his personal goal.
My opinion is that more countries will try to protect their domestic production amidst evidence that the path out of the economic crisis now appears longer than what we originally thought it would be. In doing so, they will have to allow for ample room for protectionism measures to be applied, setting limits on quantity and/or price of imports, in order to support domestic production instead, which is exactly the opposite of what the extrovert in nature shipping industry needs.
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 26 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR POSITIVE MOMENTUM, BUT PROSPECTS REMAIN DIM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched a bit higher over the past couple of sessions and the Chinese are returning to the market after a week long hi ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
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Showing 3176 to 3180 news of total 6871 |
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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