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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
 COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case so far. The Chinese have been importing record volumes of iron ore throughout the year, taking advantage of softening prices, which touched their lowest level in five years a few days ago. Firm supply from Brazil and Australia has also supported this trend. Both producers, with a combined global market share of over 70%, have been steadily increasing their production post 2000, mainly guided by the mandate of accelerating Chinese appetite.
The boom of economic development in China has in turn made the country “the gift that keeps on giving” for mineral exporters across the globe. Big iron ore producers have been speeding up their sup-ply post 2000, mainly relying on what seemed as a race by China to match its infrastructure with its growth, but somewhere along the lines the fact that the gradual westernization of China, would at some point translate into deceleration of steel consumption was probably overlooked by the market, which brings us to today.
The growth of steel consumption in the country turned red for the first time in over two decades. The slowdown in property construction has quickly curbed the domestic need for steel and consequent-ly iron ore to a significant degree, which translated to excess production of steel as well as increasing iron ore stockpiles. In turn prices for both commodities started sliding, kick starting a vicious cycle of downward pressure.
From one hand, iron ore production was not tamed by the big ex-porters in order to support prices. As big miners in both Australia and Brazil have designed their production capacity around an economy of scale model, cutting down their production to match softening demand growth has not been an option to them, while this also gave them the means to start squeezing the bottom line of their Chinese competitors. At the same time, the Chinese themselves remained buyers of iron ore, enticed by the new attractive price levels they have long desired, with local steel producers remaining active de-spite the fact that domestic demand had started to scale back significantly. That led to surging exports, with cheap Chinese steel flooding the markets, further weighing on global prices.
In both iron ore and steel markets the prospects remain dim, with no evidence suggesting that a reversal is imminent. November was the second lowest month of the year in terms of Chinese iron ore imports, while the country’s exports of steel surged to a record high. Exhausting the stallion of the developing economies in the “becoming a developed country” race, means that in the not so distant future, China could see its growing appetite for growth linked commodities squeezed further. It is often said lately that India or other developing economies could step up to fill in the demand gap created by China, but let’s not forget that history doesn’t always repeat itself.
The truth is that the world in which China emerged as the big economy it currently is, is a very different place today. Developing economies nowadays cannot rely on developed ones to accelerate their growth in the same degree they used to, as most of the latter still struggle themselves with ailing growth, while at the same time and even most importantly, the belief that free trade is always affected during periods of economic crisis is becoming more evident these days. India has persistently tried to promote the “Make in India” and although the policy has met little success so far, Prime Minister Modi has made the idea of stop relying on imports for some of the most important commodities and start using domestic reserves, his personal goal.
My opinion is that more countries will try to protect their domestic production amidst evidence that the path out of the economic crisis now appears longer than what we originally thought it would be. In doing so, they will have to allow for ample room for protectionism measures to be applied, setting limits on quantity and/or price of imports, in order to support domestic production instead, which is exactly the opposite of what the extrovert in nature shipping industry needs.
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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