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Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With that definition out of the way, it’s worth taking a look at potential tanker storage plays in the light of the latest demise of oil prices, one not seen after the super-contango on both the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forward curves of the 2008 markets’ crash. According to a recent report from Mcquilling Services, “ubiquitous bullish sentiment developed as the price bottom was established and the contango steepened. Both onshore and offshore storage plays were profitable during the super-contango of 2009 as the depth of the curve left plenty of profit potential”.
Mcquilling had looked into contango plays at the end of September. As it states, “when the first note was released, the Brent front month futures contract was trading at US $97.63 and WTI was trading at US $91.70, in the upper range of a multi-year rally. During this time, the Brent curve had moved into contango producing a flurry of speculation about the formation’s bullish effect, which led crude oil stakeholders to scrutinize the market for storage opportunities. Since the release of the first note, both Brent and WTI have experienced steep price declines. Comparing the 2009 and September 2014 contangos illustrates a couple of key conditions that were absent in the September contango. The first and most important consideration is the depth of the contango. In 2009, the forward curve was steep enough to cover associated storage and carrying costs. A storage play could have been implemented in 2009 based purely off the market contango regardless of future price direction. Crude oil could have been purchased in the spot market and simultaneously sold in the futures market at a profit. The September 2014 contango did not provide enough future premiums to hedge the exposure at a profit”, said Mcquilling.
It added that “second, the price level at which a contango forms is a critical consideration. In 2009, the contango took shape after a meaningful sell-off as markets recovered from the 2008 economic collapse. As the global economy recovered, so did crude oil demand. From the bottom of the collapse, abundant upside potential encouraged traders to consider storage plays. In contrast, the September 2014 contango formed towards the top of a multi-year price range amidst a period of oversupply and decreasing demand. As global crude oil production outpaced demand, crude oil surpluses amassed and Brent and WTI prices fell. An unhedged storage play implemented in September would have yielded extremely poor results. Both Brent and WTI have continued to weaken since September as a result of the global oversupply of crude oil. On November 27, 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members met to debate whether to cut production to steady prices or to maintain production output to marginalize US shale production. OPEC decided to maintain its production ceiling for 2015 forcing Brent and WTI to the lowest price levels since July 2009. Both Brent and WTI are now in contango and, if history repeats itself, traders will be looking for storage opportunities. By applying the lessons learned from the September contango, we evaluate the current contangos to determine if floating storage plays make sense under current market conditions”, it noted.
Carrying Cost Assumptions
European Interest Rate Blend: 1.88%/yr
VLCC Capacity: 2,000,000 barrels
VLCC One-year Time Charter: US $31,500/day
Price of Crude: US $70.00/barrel
Total Carrying Cost One-year Time Charter: US $0.58 per barrel month
According to Mcquilling’s analysis “neither Brent nor WTI are presently showing enough of a future premium to front month prices to justify implementing a floating storage play. We assume the average blended cost per VLCC on a one-year time charter at US $31,500/day. The cost of carry per barrel per month utilizing a one-year time charter amounts to US $0.58 per barrel month. WTI has been trading at a sharp discount to Brent this year because of increased North American production and decreasing foreign imports. Less US reliance on foreign crudes has created a price polarity between the two benchmarks. December 2016 Brent is trading at a US $8.61 premium to January 2015 while WTI is producing only a US $5.17 premium through the same period. We have been monitoring the Brent/WTI spread since the beginning of the price decline in July and have identified a strong correlation between falling prices and a tightening Brent/WTI Benchmark spread. From a high near US $11 in July, the spread traded down to US $3.11 on November 11, 2014. Regression analysis on the price data yields an 80% correlation between falling prices and a tightening spread”.
Mcquilling concluded that “the relative price level at which these current contangos exist does fit the criteria for considering storage plays. In the 2009 super-contango, the curve first flattened before moving into steep contango. Once the bottom was put in 1Q 2009, the back of the curve strengthened and storage plays moved in-the-money. Over the past five months, both benchmarks have lost approximately 35% of their value. If demand is perceived to improve after the bottom of the sell-off is put in, a similar strengthening of the back of the curve may emerge making floating storage plays feasible again. While floating storage is not economically feasible based on the current contangos in Brent and WTI, floating storage may be in play if one-year VLCC time charter rates remain at current levels and the Brent curve stiffens as a result of perceived future demand growth or supply constraints. It is unlikely that the WTI contango will yield a strong case for floating storage due to the isolationist nature of the US crude oil supply market. The price polarity between Brent and WTI further proves the point that not all contangos are created equal”, the analysis concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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