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Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With that definition out of the way, it’s worth taking a look at potential tanker storage plays in the light of the latest demise of oil prices, one not seen after the super-contango on both the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forward curves of the 2008 markets’ crash. According to a recent report from Mcquilling Services, “ubiquitous bullish sentiment developed as the price bottom was established and the contango steepened. Both onshore and offshore storage plays were profitable during the super-contango of 2009 as the depth of the curve left plenty of profit potential”.
Mcquilling had looked into contango plays at the end of September. As it states, “when the first note was released, the Brent front month futures contract was trading at US $97.63 and WTI was trading at US $91.70, in the upper range of a multi-year rally. During this time, the Brent curve had moved into contango producing a flurry of speculation about the formation’s bullish effect, which led crude oil stakeholders to scrutinize the market for storage opportunities. Since the release of the first note, both Brent and WTI have experienced steep price declines. Comparing the 2009 and September 2014 contangos illustrates a couple of key conditions that were absent in the September contango. The first and most important consideration is the depth of the contango. In 2009, the forward curve was steep enough to cover associated storage and carrying costs. A storage play could have been implemented in 2009 based purely off the market contango regardless of future price direction. Crude oil could have been purchased in the spot market and simultaneously sold in the futures market at a profit. The September 2014 contango did not provide enough future premiums to hedge the exposure at a profit”, said Mcquilling.
It added that “second, the price level at which a contango forms is a critical consideration. In 2009, the contango took shape after a meaningful sell-off as markets recovered from the 2008 economic collapse. As the global economy recovered, so did crude oil demand. From the bottom of the collapse, abundant upside potential encouraged traders to consider storage plays. In contrast, the September 2014 contango formed towards the top of a multi-year price range amidst a period of oversupply and decreasing demand. As global crude oil production outpaced demand, crude oil surpluses amassed and Brent and WTI prices fell. An unhedged storage play implemented in September would have yielded extremely poor results. Both Brent and WTI have continued to weaken since September as a result of the global oversupply of crude oil. On November 27, 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members met to debate whether to cut production to steady prices or to maintain production output to marginalize US shale production. OPEC decided to maintain its production ceiling for 2015 forcing Brent and WTI to the lowest price levels since July 2009. Both Brent and WTI are now in contango and, if history repeats itself, traders will be looking for storage opportunities. By applying the lessons learned from the September contango, we evaluate the current contangos to determine if floating storage plays make sense under current market conditions”, it noted.
Carrying Cost Assumptions
European Interest Rate Blend: 1.88%/yr
VLCC Capacity: 2,000,000 barrels
VLCC One-year Time Charter: US $31,500/day
Price of Crude: US $70.00/barrel
Total Carrying Cost One-year Time Charter: US $0.58 per barrel month
According to Mcquilling’s analysis “neither Brent nor WTI are presently showing enough of a future premium to front month prices to justify implementing a floating storage play. We assume the average blended cost per VLCC on a one-year time charter at US $31,500/day. The cost of carry per barrel per month utilizing a one-year time charter amounts to US $0.58 per barrel month. WTI has been trading at a sharp discount to Brent this year because of increased North American production and decreasing foreign imports. Less US reliance on foreign crudes has created a price polarity between the two benchmarks. December 2016 Brent is trading at a US $8.61 premium to January 2015 while WTI is producing only a US $5.17 premium through the same period. We have been monitoring the Brent/WTI spread since the beginning of the price decline in July and have identified a strong correlation between falling prices and a tightening Brent/WTI Benchmark spread. From a high near US $11 in July, the spread traded down to US $3.11 on November 11, 2014. Regression analysis on the price data yields an 80% correlation between falling prices and a tightening spread”.
Mcquilling concluded that “the relative price level at which these current contangos exist does fit the criteria for considering storage plays. In the 2009 super-contango, the curve first flattened before moving into steep contango. Once the bottom was put in 1Q 2009, the back of the curve strengthened and storage plays moved in-the-money. Over the past five months, both benchmarks have lost approximately 35% of their value. If demand is perceived to improve after the bottom of the sell-off is put in, a similar strengthening of the back of the curve may emerge making floating storage plays feasible again. While floating storage is not economically feasible based on the current contangos in Brent and WTI, floating storage may be in play if one-year VLCC time charter rates remain at current levels and the Brent curve stiffens as a result of perceived future demand growth or supply constraints. It is unlikely that the WTI contango will yield a strong case for floating storage due to the isolationist nature of the US crude oil supply market. The price polarity between Brent and WTI further proves the point that not all contangos are created equal”, the analysis concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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