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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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