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Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite the fact of the relatively positive performance of late. The “pessimists”, as described by shipbroker Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, are negative regarding the future prospects of the Capesize market, at least during the first half of 2015, while things are not looking much better for 2015 as a whole. According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, the arguments expressed claim that “with the steel industry being considerably shaken up after the softer results witnessed out of China throughout the year, the market has found itself once again plagued by overcapacity in terms of vessels and excess supply of steel products, possibly marking a further slowdown in steel production growth. Having now en-ered the final month of 2014 and with rates in the final quarter of the year having grossly disappointed the expectations that had accrued from the more promising final quarter of 2013, the market has now been left in shatters in terms of market sentiment, while the headache of the excessive order book continues to loom in the horizon”.
By contrast, those who voice more optimistic views, say that things could very well be better. According to them, “iron ore trade and in particular seaborne trade, has been mainly driven by Chinese demand for almost a dec-ade now and while demand for steel production may well be faltering, it doesn’t not look like we will see an outright reduction in demand for this vital commodity. At the same time, with prices of the ore having dropped to consecutively record 5 year lows over the past months, it has been Chinese internal iron ore production that has been most at threat. Both Australia and Brazil have considerably lower breakeven levels and can sustain their production at price levels considerably lower than their Chinese counterparts. This means that as the price drops further it will likely be seaborne imports that will have most to gain boosting their demand and as such their volumes”, Lazaridis noted.
He added that according to the optimists of the dry bulk market, “the considerable iron ore inventories that have amassed in most major Chinese ports are likely to be consumed fairly quickly by the ramped up Chinese steel produc-tion and at the same time the average levels of port inventories will have to be raised in order to better secure against any disruptions in production as they will be more reliant on imports moving forward”.
As a results, Allied’s analyst wonders which will be the case out of the above different scenarios. According to him, “there may well be an increasing rise for iron ore imports, however Australia has championed as main supplier to China for many years and as things are looking now, they have been gaining further ground during 2014, moving from a 51% market share in 2013 up to roughly a 58% market share now. This means that as their mines ramp up production and gain ground in the market they will likely eat up some of the further away competition as well, countering some of the positive effects of the higher reliance of China on imports, as Aussie ore also takes up volume from longer haul sources as well”.
According to the shipbroker’s view on the 2015 dry bulk market, “as things stand now it looks as a reasonable scenario for Chinese iron ore imports to rise by around 10-15% on a year-on-year ba-sis, while to put this number in perspective the respective number for 2014 looks close to around 16%. Having said that, this rise in imports is possibly going to translate into a more marginal 5% demand growth and even this figure seems to be optimistic. At the same time the schedule of newbuilding deliveries is quite well packed with over 139 vessels currently set to hit the water within 2015, while the lower bunker prices might add another headache as fuel consumption becomes less of an issue and many charter-ers start to push for higher speeds and in turn further increase the total annual carrying capacity of the Capesize fleet”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
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