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Thursday, 27 November 14
PANAMAX : EXPECTATION'S FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RUSH, DISAPPEAR DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS

Handy
“We have experienced a firming market the last couple of weeks. More activity from cargo owners in the Atlantic and less available tonnage for prompter dates causing the market to increase, “said Fearnleys in its latest report. The broker further said, especially out of the USG we see more grain and coal cargoes destined for both Europe and the Feast.

The TA´s are up about US$ 1,300 w-o-w and a Smax can now achieve around US$ 11,500 for a round voyage. In the Far East, Fearnleys see the same firming tendency with more cargo in the market. SE Asia rounds are paying around US$ 10k where China positions can fix at around 11k for trips direction India. The period market is also back in play and Supras are getting fixed in region of 10k for short period while the bigger Ultramaxes are being fixed at around 11500-12k depending on delivery.

Panamax
According to Fearnleys, the panamax segment is steady activity in Atlantic this week, more coal orders for December and also Fronthaul biz from Brasil and Usg to Far East. "Despite we see more cargoes it has limited impact on rates. Rumours of delays in some ports and the fact that we are in the end of November with wind, weather and charterers normally pushing more orders in the market to empty their stocks,"Fearnleys noted. While commenting on Panamax, Fearnleys says, the expectation´s for a strong end of year rush, disappear day by day. We seen some 2 laden Atl with redel US gulf at healthy 16000. While strait fronthaul now arnd same 16,000 to 16,500 per day. Pacific rounds around 10,000 and nopac for beg January fixed at 8,500/9,000. We still hope for a December rush before activity slow down, but number of ships open for orders makes us uncertain to which extent so will happen.

Capesize
According to broker Fearnleys , the Transatlantic market looked like the only market that would hold, due to a tight tonnage supply, but has now started to fall from a high of about US$ 30,000 down to low US$ 20,000´s daily. The West Australian market has been relatively active with a mix of Miner activity and operator relets, but the resistance from the owner´s side has been weak and rates have drifted. The same can be said for the Brazil to China trade which has fallen into the upper teens, last report was US$ 18.50 per mt down from US$ 20.50´ish. Paper has followed suite and the period numbers attainable for a one year deal have fallen to +/- US$ 15,000 daily which is proving to be hard to swallow for owners and thus index linked deals have been the solution.

It can be noted that even with the downward trend there is still volatility in the market, Fearnleys concluded.



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