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Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that these sovereigns fall into three categories, Fitch Ratings says.
Lower oil prices will primarily affect sovereign credit fundamentals through their fiscal and external positions. They generally pose the greatest risk to the credit profiles of sovereigns with high fiscal breakeven prices and that are already running fiscal deficits, such as Bahrain, Angola, Venezuela, and Ecuador.
The least vulnerable Fitch-rated sovereigns are Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, and Norway. As high per capita producers, they need to devote less of their oil revenues to meeting their populations' needs, giving fiscal breakeven oil prices well below prevailing prices. Large buffers have been built in recent years and these sovereigns should continue to record fiscal and external surpluses and strengthen buffers even if oil prices settle at current levels.
A third category exists for whom lower oil prices would push fiscal surpluses or close-to-balanced budgets into deficits from 2015, eroding fiscal and external buffers. For these sovereigns, ratings pressures could build in 2015 if prices do not recover but how quickly and to what extent this happens will depend on various factors, including the size of existing buffers (Saudi Arabia has the largest buffers in this category), the broader impact of cheaper oil on commodity-dependent economies (including those with significant buffers, like Russia), and policy responses that may accentuate or contain the impact of falling oil prices.
Policy responses could also contain the direct impact of prices on the most vulnerable sovereigns, although these may have knock-on effects on the sovereign credit profile.
Oil prices have fallen sharply, with Brent crude dropping from USD115/b in mid-June to close to USD80/b.
Fitch’s full report 'Oil: Fiscal Breakevens are a Key Guide to Exporter's Sovereign Credit Risk' is available to subscribers at www.fitchratings.com or by clicking the link.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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