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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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