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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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