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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the down ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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