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Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix by 2030, while overall gas demand growth in China will be strongest
As details for China's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) have evolved through 2014, energy suppliers have raised concerns that the continual re-thinking of targets and goals is creating uncertainty for China's energy and resources demand. In 'A moving target - assessing the impact of China's environmental policies', Wood Mackenzie concludes that within the energy, resources and mining sectors, China's recent environmental policies broadly continue to encourage the expansion of natural gas. More surprisingly however, despite some industry belief that this will result in coal's decline, Wood Mackenzie says coal demand will actually be supported and remain the dominant fuel in China's power mix.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that coal's role in power is likely to decline from 72% to 64% of China's power mix as a result of APPCAP but remains the primary fuel for China. In absolute terms, this translates to coal demand increasing by just over two billion tonnes from now until then. Mr David Brown, Northeast Asia Power Markets Manager, explains, "Tackling chronic air pollution is a clear government priority but not the only one: economic growth, energy security and low cost energy remain paramount. Although initial policy goals focused on expanding the role of gas through demand targets or caps on coal consumption, policy releases throughout 2014 have now evolved to focus on emissions control rather than mass fuel switching to gas."
Northeast Asia Mining and Metals Manager, Mr Rohan Kendall says "The latest APPCAP policies are not aimed at penalising coal, but are a major step towards sustainable policies encouraging clean-coal use. The impact of APPCAP policies will affect the type of coal consumed by coastal power plants and emissions control rather than absolute demand volumes. With a reduced emphasis on switching coal-fired plants to gas for example, utilities will become more prudent in plant operations and coal selection - supporting low-ash and low-sulphur imports".
Even with a reduced emphasis on coal switching to gas, Wood Mackenzie's analysis shows China's environmental policies as broadly positive for gas, despite an expectation of some near-term growing pains as new supplies ramp-up. Gas demand in China will increase from around 207 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2014 to 335 bcm by 2017, with demand from power, transport and the residential/commercial sectors contributing most to the growth near term. Further on from 2020 to 2030, gas demand will see an annualised average growth rate above four-percent, reaching 655 bcm by this time as China becomes with world's second largest gas market after the US.
Beyond power, gas and coal, Wood Mackenzie expects environmental policies will have little impact on demand for petrochemicals, iron ore, steel and metals. Rather, capacity closures will impact these industries more. Capacity that is out-dated, with high emissions and low margins will gradually see shut downs as the government tightens credit, which has been the lifeline of these industries over the last several years. Still, these capacity closures will not have an impact on production with limited impact on raw material demand. The intention is to consolidate fragmented and less efficient operations, not lower output.
Mr Brown concludes, "The way China's environmental policies have evolved already shows that they do not work in isolation but in a more complex fashion, hand-in-hand with conomic goals. The new leadership is focused on formulating integrated policies that balance these objectives. This approach indicates China's evolving environmental policies are not intended to be destructive for energy, mining, and metals but will rather help these industries grow sustainably and efficiently through the long term."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Friday, 10 October 14
U.S. PRODUCED 83.2 MMST OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 09 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW WEAKNESS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We mentioned last week that after several weeks of rate increase for the Supras, the bigger Panamaxes started to snap up better paying Supr ...
Thursday, 09 October 14
SHIPPING REMAINS CHALLENGED AS GLOBAL GROWTH DISAPPOINTS - BIMCO
The global shipping industry finds no grace from much stronger economic activity going forward, as the global recovery remains fragile and uneven. ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
CAPES RATE FOR THE W. AUSTRALIA TO CHINA VOYAGE MOVED TO BELOW $8/MT - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, with rates for Capes remaining on the red while those for Panamaxes managed to outperform th ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting inv ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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