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Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS

Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, putting some pressure to the rates for the Smaxes. We do however still see healthy levels being achieved with a slight increase of USD 200 since last week on the Tarvs, Fearnleys AS said in its latest report.

According to Fearnleys, in the Feast, Golden Week is upon us, and we see less activity in the spot and period market. Spore-Indo-India is trading at levels around USD 10k while the nickel ore rounds from Philippines are at USD 7k. The period market is very quiet this week, much lead by the falling FFA market. Owners are still holding out for levels around USD 12k for 1 year on the Supras, while takers are holding back in the low 11´s.

Panamax
Fearnleys commented on Panamax that, Indices are up, and stronger fixtures are done in both hemispheres just before holidays in India and festival time in China.

Fearnleys believes that, A steady output of USG grains give owners return of above 15,500 + 550K GBB or close to 45 pmt mid-week. Could reports of deferred rail supply of grains to US ports lead to a prolonged season? Some "pockets" with lack of tonnage in the Atlantic have resulted in significantly stronger fixtures up to and above 8k/day. However, charterers with forward requirements are offering far less returns on voyage. In the Pacific volumes and levels were sliding early week, whereas mid-week reports show strong fixtures in the 8k range for NOPAC and above 9k for trips to India. Are we about to see a seasonal Q4 push? On the contrary to the positive signals above, arbitrage and trading is limited. There has been a stable lack of confidence in the forward curve with a subdued period market. 1 year levels are around 9k, Fearnleys noted.

Capesize
On Capesize vessel, Fearnleys noted that, dull and without much direction as iron ore and coal volumes fail to live up expectations. the broker further commented, an abundance of prompt tonnage in Far East, not daring to gamble on the long Brazil rounds, compete fiercely for the few stems available ex Australia - with the Dampier/Qingdao conference trade being stuck at around USD 8 pmt or around USD 10k/day.

According to the Broker, conditions in the western hemisphere becoming critical, with a distinct lack of activity on both fronthaul and transatlantic - resulting in idled ships and the Tubarao/Qingdao key route falling close to USD 19 pmt or some USD 19k/day. Period activity remains limited as FFA values presently support no more than USD 18k for good large modern units, a brutal step down from a reported USD 20k recently done on 178k dwt/built 2009 for about 2 years.



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