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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 22 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 3.10 (-4.50%) month over month and $ 0.95 PT MT week over ...
Monday, 22 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.35 (+0.69%) day on day and lost US$ 0.30 (-0.58%) per mt week on week. ...
Sunday, 21 September 14
CAPE INDEX LOST 17% W-O-W ; BALTIC DRY PLUNGES 106 POINTS
COALspot.com: This week the freight market softened a bit compared to last week.
BDI fell 8.97% week on week and closed BDI at 1075 points on ...
Friday, 19 September 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT +0.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 19 September 14
PRICES FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS HAVEN'T CORRECTED ENOUGH, DESPITE LOWER THAN EXPECTED FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lot has been said and written about the looming dry bulk market recovery over the past few months. However, even if this hasn’t been materi ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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