We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
|
|
|
Showing 136 to 140 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
|
| |
| |
|
