We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
|
|
|
Showing 116 to 120 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
