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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Tuesday, 09 September 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.207 MTN OF COAL IN AUGUST; TRADE VALUE AROUND $1.17 BILLION
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.17 billio ...
Monday, 08 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP UNDERPERFORMED LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.20 (-0.39%) day on day and US$ 1.60 (-3.04%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 08 September 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY JAN'15 CLOSED AT US$ 66.30 PMT W/E 5 SEPTEMBER 2014; LOST 5.15% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.23%) day on day and US$ 2.05 (-3.04%) week on wee ...
Monday, 08 September 14
CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORT DEMAND VERY STRONG - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: 30 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot iron ore market last week to haul iron ore import cargoes to Chinese buyers.
Acco ...
Sunday, 07 September 14
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE FIRM IN SPITE OF CAPE'S THIS WEEK'S WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: BDI up by 0.7 pct week on week and closed at 1155 points this week. The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that mea ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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