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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving sentiment as to the future prospects of the Dry Bulk markets. Having put behind them the “lean” years of 2011 and 2012, owners were starting to feel more confident about the conditions they would face moving forward.
Many saw a more balanced market were the ore reasonable delivery schedule of newbuildings (compared to that of 2012) would be met with the equal demand growth that they had been accustomed to during the period post the 2008 crisis.
This was a fairly reasonable assumption as there seemed to be nothing in sight that could stop the insatiable appetite from the developing economies for further growth and higher consumption of raw materials. This all proved the more reasonable when just at the start of the final quarter of 2013 a major rally in the freight markets started to take place, bringing earnings to levels that were long forgotten.
Yet this rosy picture painted by many in their mind was already breaking at the seams. The freight market started to plummet back down to the levels seen in early 2013 and whispers started to emerge of an imminent slowdown in growth by the dry bulk’s major driving economy, namely China. Yet this did not seem to have the strong impact many would have anticipated in the secondhand market. Prices continued to climb at an extraordinary rate peaking late April early May were a promise of a strong spring market never materialized. Yet even after this, the correction was only marginal. So why is there still such optimism amongst buyers? and more specifically why still for the larger capsize vessels?
Many may be still convinced that appetite will still be there going forward for both iron ore and coal by the world’s second largest economy. In all truth there may well be a new stimulus plan just around the corner and things may well get back on track with regards to demand. But it seems there is a more indirect cause at play here. While the continual increase in asset prices may be seen as a reflection of a more bullish approach by investors, it seems to be more the excess of financing and the high price ideas held by the few available sellers in the market.
With regards to the former, one must not forget that finance was not easily available during 2011-2012, especially for secondhand purchases and as a consequence the large influx of cash has made most buyers willing to splash out more in order to fuel their expansion plans.
This will inevitably have some consequences going forward as most of this readily available cash comes at a much higher cost then what the traditional bank driven finance would have. As to the side of the sellers, there are few out there willing to part with their assets at lower prices than they have been used to seeing over the past couple of months, and holding a more optimistic view themselves, they are only truly willing sellers at the currently prevailing prices.
The question that holds is how long will this new price reality hold? And will freight rates eventually show the recovery all these prospective buyers are hoping for?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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