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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving sentiment as to the future prospects of the Dry Bulk markets. Having put behind them the “lean” years of 2011 and 2012, owners were starting to feel more confident about the conditions they would face moving forward.
Many saw a more balanced market were the ore reasonable delivery schedule of newbuildings (compared to that of 2012) would be met with the equal demand growth that they had been accustomed to during the period post the 2008 crisis.
This was a fairly reasonable assumption as there seemed to be nothing in sight that could stop the insatiable appetite from the developing economies for further growth and higher consumption of raw materials. This all proved the more reasonable when just at the start of the final quarter of 2013 a major rally in the freight markets started to take place, bringing earnings to levels that were long forgotten.
Yet this rosy picture painted by many in their mind was already breaking at the seams. The freight market started to plummet back down to the levels seen in early 2013 and whispers started to emerge of an imminent slowdown in growth by the dry bulk’s major driving economy, namely China. Yet this did not seem to have the strong impact many would have anticipated in the secondhand market. Prices continued to climb at an extraordinary rate peaking late April early May were a promise of a strong spring market never materialized. Yet even after this, the correction was only marginal. So why is there still such optimism amongst buyers? and more specifically why still for the larger capsize vessels?
Many may be still convinced that appetite will still be there going forward for both iron ore and coal by the world’s second largest economy. In all truth there may well be a new stimulus plan just around the corner and things may well get back on track with regards to demand. But it seems there is a more indirect cause at play here. While the continual increase in asset prices may be seen as a reflection of a more bullish approach by investors, it seems to be more the excess of financing and the high price ideas held by the few available sellers in the market.
With regards to the former, one must not forget that finance was not easily available during 2011-2012, especially for secondhand purchases and as a consequence the large influx of cash has made most buyers willing to splash out more in order to fuel their expansion plans.
This will inevitably have some consequences going forward as most of this readily available cash comes at a much higher cost then what the traditional bank driven finance would have. As to the side of the sellers, there are few out there willing to part with their assets at lower prices than they have been used to seeing over the past couple of months, and holding a more optimistic view themselves, they are only truly willing sellers at the currently prevailing prices.
The question that holds is how long will this new price reality hold? And will freight rates eventually show the recovery all these prospective buyers are hoping for?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average November 2014 flat day on day and lost US$ 0.85 (-1.66%) per mt week on week. The swap also lost US ...
Monday, 29 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST AROUND 5% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 3.55 (-5.10%) month over month and flat week over week.
...
Sunday, 28 September 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market shows a bit weak trend this week.
The BDI was lost 2.42% week on week and closed at 1049 points on 26 Se ...
Sunday, 28 September 14
BERAU AGREES DEAL WITH GOVT, MINING AREA REDUCED - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal miner PT Berau Coal, a subsidiary of Jakarta-listed PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the gover ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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