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Tuesday, 09 September 14
WEAK M&A DESPITE ABUNDANT DISTRESSED INDONESIA COAL ASSETS - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that a meaningful level of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity leading to a consolidation of the coal sector in Indonesia is unlikely, despite the substantial number of distressed coal companies in the country. Sustained weakness in demand and an uncertain price outlook for Asian thermal coal have prompted the larger coal companies in Indonesia to preserve liquidity and focus on maximising returns from existing projects.
Coal prices have fallen by about 40% from the average prices in 2011, and are not expected to see any material improvement in the next 12-24 months, due to weak import demand from China and strong supply globally.
The larger Indonesian coal miners have already incurred sizable investments in greenfield and brownfield coal projects in the past two to three years, and now have large undeveloped resources. Fitch believes capex will be mostly limited to expanding production of existing assets and bringing some of the economically viable resources to production readiness. Investment spending by these companies on new coal assets will be muted until there is a meaningful recovery in coal prices.
Fitch believes any M&A will be limited to assets that can be relatively easily integrated into existing operations of potential suitors or mines than can be integrated with potential mine-mouth power generation projects supplying to the national grid based on long-term power purchase agreements. We also believe there could be some interest from overseas power generation companies, such as from India, to support their coal requirements in the home market. However, we believe such opportunities are limited compared to the number of distressed coal assets in Indonesia.
An additional obstacle for M&A is regulatory risk. These include national production (or export) caps, increased royalties for the newer (Izin Usaha Pertambangan/IUP) coal license holders (which make up the largest share of the distressed assets). Furthermore, most available greenfield mines are located in Sumatera, which generally contains low calorific value (CV) coals.
Presently, low CV coals face a higher degree of uncertainty in terms of pricing, given a potential ban (or punitive import taxes) on the import of these into China. Given the low energy content and higher investments required for logistics, monetising Sumatran coal has become increasingly more challenging.
Given the weak market conditions and outlook, access to funding, including bank debt and debt capital markets, has also been challenged, except for a very few large, profitable coal producers in Indonesia. This too is proving to be a constraining factor for consolidation.
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Monday, 15 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 2.30 (-3.36%) month over month, but increased day on day a ...
Sunday, 14 September 14
FREIGHT RATES RALLY AS DEMAND INCREASED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number (in US$) issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange up 2.25 percent week on week. BDI cl ...
Friday, 12 September 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 673.3 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 11 September 14
THE PANAMAX MARKET IS TAKING A BREATHER - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We have experienced more activity in both hemispheres this week, said Fearnleys in this week's weekly report.
"We see rates c ...
Wednesday, 10 September 14
ARE GREEK BANKS ON THE VERGE TO START LENDING AGAIN? - JOHN N. COTZIAS
It is well known that Greek Banks had suffered severely after the economic crisis of 2008. From that period onwards, major changes have occur ...
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