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Wednesday, 13 August 14
WEEKLY MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS SNP BROKER

Being at the peak of the holiday season, August is, as usual, the quietest month in terms of snp transactions, yet it is also a time very critical for the forthcoming quarter, as the market seeks signs for the direction of asset prices. The future prospects of the snp market is currently tangled between uncertainty in both global economic conditions and geopolitics, which affect market psychology and actual trade at the same time.

Despite the fact that freight rates in the dry sector have been depressingly low during the past months, the decrease in asset prices has not been equally strong. This is because during the past six years Sellers have been trained to acknowledge volatility incurred during the smaller shipping circles and to resist in reducing their price ideas, as they wait for the recovery of the freight market in September.

As far as older tonnage is concerned, we experience a correction in values of 90's blt vessels. However, the firm demolition prices, which in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan are still at US$ high 400's per long ton, block a further correction in asset values since the “scrap age” of a vessel is being approached faster this way.

On the new-building market, a big number of shipyards are sitting on a significant order-book and currently don’t appear willing to proceed to heavy price discounts. Resale prices are perhaps a bit more elastic than new-building ones, and although they have dropped from the high levels reached ear-lier in 2014, they are still fairly stable compared to rest of the market. A representative recent example is that of a 61,000dwt Imabari Blt 2015, which was sold at usd 31.4 mill. Most notably though, the premium required for prompt deliveries is thinning due to the poor freight market.

Having discussed what is going on the resale and vintage tonnage, which are heavily dependent upon new-building and scrap prices, it is interesting to see what is happening to the "middle-aged" tonnage. The post 2000's blt ships are significantly exposed to the freight market, as new-building and scrap prices are not a critical factor in their value. Two notable snp transactions to be mentioned in the handysize market are the recent sale of M/V Atlantic Arrow (Abt 28,000dwt 2005 Blt Japan) which went for US$ 12.1m and that of the M/V Cielo Di Genova (Abt 32,300dwt / 2005 Blt Japan) which was snapped, considerably higher, for Usd 16,5 mill last December.

In the more volatile sector of Panamax, prices presented the higher correction. The M/V Ocean Lily (Abt 76,500dwt / 2006 Blt Japan) was sold in March this year at region Usd 25 mill, while the M/V Yusho Spica (Abt 76,000 dwt / 2006 Blt Japan) was sold for around Usd 20 mill 3 months later. The M/V Michele D'Amato (Abt 76.000 / 2005 Blt Japan) and the M/V Lowlands Nello were reported sold last week for USD 17.7mill and 17.2 mill respectively.

The level where the next comparable sale will be fixed, which will probably be the fresh market candidate M/V Golden Kiji (Abt 76,500dwt / 2007 Blt Japan), will be significant in terms of where the market is heading next, so remain seated with your seatbelt fastened as there might be a few more bumps ahead.

Compiled by:         
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis

Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.



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