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Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA

Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest miners, is without a doubt good news for the Dry Bulk market and possibly the first good news in a while. Although this is the first of a number of stages that need to be reached before the flow of exports reaches pre-2014 levels, it is definitely a development towards the right direction.

Back in January this year, the parliament of Indonesia introduced regulations affecting the exports of raw ores. The government’s plan was to increase local processing of concentrated ores that would eventually allow for higher prices on exports. Under the new rules, ore concentrate exports such as; iron, gold, copper and zinc were heavily taxed, while in the case of nickel and bauxite exports were completely banned. 

Although the country is most well-known for its coal production, when it comes to nickel and bauxite, Indonesian exports account for around 60% of the global seaborne trade. Indonesia is in fact one of the top two nickel producers worldwide, the ore of which is used for the production of nickel pig iron, essential to produce stainless steel, while bauxite is used to make aluminum. The major importer of both these commodities up to that point and key trading partner of Indonesia was China.

Since the ban came into effect, Chinese nickel imports have bottomed and despite the fact that China, in order to satisfy its demand, has turned to the Philippines, the reality is that Indonesian nickel ore is more suitable for feed stocking stainless steel and therefore the Filipino one can’t be the perfect replacement for it. Bauxite on the other hand is easy to replace but there are still issues like the higher cost when sourced from more distant regions, therefore Chinese imports are bound to remain suppressed until a suitable alternative source is found. But even in the case of other minerals, such as copper, that were not banned from being exported but the exports of which suffered mainly due to heavy taxation being applied, the net effect was pretty much the same; production was hammered and a big volume of cargoes said goodbye to the Asia Pacific market. 

Supra and Handymax tonnage has been mostly affected by this ban, while the Panamax segment has also missed out on some important volume of business. Sebuku Iron Lateritic Ores (SILO) and Lumbung Mineral Sentosa, the two miners that recently agreed to pay the additional tax, have now shipped the first cargoes in six months. The importance of this recent development marks the beginning of a change in attitude by Indonesian producers, which could soon be coupled by a policy curb in taxation or even on the ban itself, especially if miners can prove the existence of plans to build smelting facilities locally.

The dry bulk trade in Southeast Asia is affected by a variety of patterns, and while Indonesian exports is one piece of the puzzle, it is quite an important one and one of those key issues that have been denying dry bulkers healthier business volumes in the Pacific. Once fully resolved, it is expected to give a strong boost to freight rates for Supra/Handymax tonnage in the region, and although for now this is only just a confidence boost, the truth is that these days the market is as hungry for confidence as it could be.

Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima 

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.



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