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Wednesday, 09 July 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 The mini-boom in dry bulker values catapulted ship prices too fast too far over the last one-and-a-half year. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but this is much easier said than done.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Notably, Cargill penned in May 2013 3x180kdwt Capes at SWS, acknowledging they would not operate these ships forever, and by the end of the same year sold them to Scorpio at 57musd each at a stunning rgn10musd profit per vessel. Oldendorff purchased a Crown-63 resale in late 2012 for mid-24s and after trading her, sold her for rgn31musd to Greeks. The same interests recently sold to Diana, a 180k Capesize resale under construction at Qingdao Beihai, for 58musd and a profit in excess of 10musd.
S&P-wise, the appreciation was spectacular on all dry asset classes last year. Regarding LME Panamaxes, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at sub-m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in 14mos. While initial appreciation was substantiated, it went on irrationally (mimicry, artificial liquidity by the speculative funds, fear of ‘losing’ the market or even having money in the bank, taxation considerations, low interest rates, etc). On a few S&P asset play cases, in late 2012 Norwegian interests committed the 2006-built Tsuneishi Kamsarmax ex ‘Mizunagi Maru’ arnd 18.4musd and sold her a year later at 23.5musd to Greek interests enjoying a 5musd profit. Chinese owners also got on the bandwagon, having sold two late 90s Capes (m/v Lian Fu Star and m/v Tai Fu Star) to Ukrainians at mid/high teens recording a profit of rgn/xs 5musd per vessel in less than a year.
The current price correction is evidenced by the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ 3 months ago. This brings asset values back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. Most likely, the current correction will not break soon the previous lows, because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows and there are still many buyers/funds getting ready to step in, should a further correction in asset values occurs.
Well-timed acquisitions materialize when the others are fearful, when the banks do not lend money, when speculative money becomes disappointed. Nobody knows where we are heading but the recent past has benchmarked a lower bound for assets. As such, there may be longer-term value in modern S&P deals priced up to a 20% premium above the rock-bottom (e.g. a 2006/7 Japanese built Panamax BC at 18musd) and at a respective 10% premium for newbuildings (e.g., rgn/sub 29-30musd for Kamsa NBs from top Chinese yards). We may be getting close to there, but there are strong resistance forces as well.
Perhaps the wildest scenario would arise if the freight market stays depressed for another year and asset prices deteriorate further. What would then be the reaction of the speculative funds that, having a short-term investment horizon anyway, may massively look for an exit? In case this happens, it may signal the biggest asset play opportunity in the coming years.
By Panos Tsilingiris - SnP Broker
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
Sunday, 13 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX GAINS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK; CAPE INDEX FALLS ALMOST 21.40%
COALspot.com: This week the freight market fell again after gaining last week. The cape index was down almost 21.40 pct and closed at 1465 points.
...
Friday, 11 July 14
EUROPE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS IN COAL SUPPLIES; RENEWABLE ENERGIES ARE REDUCING THE FULL-LOAD OPERATING HOURS OF HARD COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS - VDKI
COALspot.com: General conditions for coal-fired power plants must be improved if the energy turnaround is to be a success, said German coal importe ...
Friday, 11 July 14
DR.CIESLIK RE-ELECTED AS CEO OF GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION (VDKI)
Press Release : Dr Cieslik re-elected as CEO of German Coal Importer Association (VDKi) for the period 2014 – 2018. The German Coal Importer ...
Friday, 11 July 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $ 1.031 BILLION WORTH OF 11.744 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN JUNE 2014
COALspot.com: Port of Newcastle has shipped 11,744,396 tons of coal for the month ended 30 June 2014. According to Port’s monthly report, YTD ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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