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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
Sunday, 13 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX GAINS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK; CAPE INDEX FALLS ALMOST 21.40%
COALspot.com: This week the freight market fell again after gaining last week. The cape index was down almost 21.40 pct and closed at 1465 points.
...
Friday, 11 July 14
EUROPE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS IN COAL SUPPLIES; RENEWABLE ENERGIES ARE REDUCING THE FULL-LOAD OPERATING HOURS OF HARD COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS - VDKI
COALspot.com: General conditions for coal-fired power plants must be improved if the energy turnaround is to be a success, said German coal importe ...
Friday, 11 July 14
DR.CIESLIK RE-ELECTED AS CEO OF GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION (VDKI)
Press Release : Dr Cieslik re-elected as CEO of German Coal Importer Association (VDKi) for the period 2014 – 2018. The German Coal Importer ...
Friday, 11 July 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $ 1.031 BILLION WORTH OF 11.744 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN JUNE 2014
COALspot.com: Port of Newcastle has shipped 11,744,396 tons of coal for the month ended 30 June 2014. According to Port’s monthly report, YTD ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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