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Wednesday, 25 June 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 During his recent visit in London, China's Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China's economy, the world's second largest after the US, will not face a hard landing and will maintain a medium/high growth for the long run! Beijing has set a minimum 7.5% annual growth. Mr Li, refrained from rolling out any strong stimulus package to support his government’s target, and instead said that policy will focus more on “targeted measures” to secure and ensure a sustained rate in the future. The Chinese economy expanded 7.4% in the first quarter of the year, down from an increase of 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.
IMF's forecast for 2015 is around 7% which is lower than the government's long run target of 7.5%, so it will be interesting to see what Beijing will do to contradict the “Cassandras”. Decreased demand for coal and iron ore, together with a depressed grain season is mostly responsible for today's market levels. The BDI at the timing of writing stands at 867 points, led by the weakest panamax rates seen over the past 20 months.
During the first half of the year, iron ore imports by China fell largely due to seasonality. Additionally to this, stockpiles at Chinese terminals, which have provided a safety valve in an oversupplied market by restocking the commodity, are currently very close to cover their physical storage capacity, hence further restocking can only be done to a limited extent. These facts, together with the “colossal” supply of tonnage, have put pressure on rates for capes and panamaxes.
On the other hand, iron ore trade in the second half of the year and especially fourth quarter is expected to pick up due to the seasonality of the trade. This together with the fact that shipments out of Brazil have yet to break out of their previous highs and have only recently shown signs of strength, can provide a great support for rates. This is also important because shipments from Brazil take much longer to deliver than shipments from Australia, therefore adding more tonne-miles to the mix. So if iron ore exports out of Brazil do rise out of their sideways trend for 2014, a much larger number of Capesize and Panamax vessels should be demanded over the long term, something which should eventually lead to a spike.
On the smaller sizes, South American grain season was off to a slow start. Traditionally exports from Brazil and Argentina tend to rise in April and start cooling off in July. April's exports this year stood at 12mil tonnes compared with the 16mil tonnes last year. One could say that economic issues in Argentina and its depreciated currency could have influenced farmers in keeping their crops in order to sell them at a later date. This remains to be seen, however for the time being a poor grain season has put a lot of pressure on smaller sized vessels. North America's crop output this year is expected to be high, however it usually peaks from September onwards, hence the impact shall not be seen over the summer.
Weak charter rates and poor market sentiment paired with over inflated asset values, has led to a slowdown in activity in the second hand and new building markets. The price gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas has become wider with many Sellers having decided to withdrawn their assets from the snp market and possibly return sometime during Q3-Q4, believing that by then freight rates will have recovered and hence asset prices will have firmed. This is definitely a risky decision for those who want/have to sell because if the market doesn't recover by the end of the year as most expect, then the pressure will be much more on the Sellers’ side and therefore they will have to bridge the gap by moving down to Buyers’ ideas and offering even bigger discounts off last dones than those currently required.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
INDIA BUDGET HAS LIMITED SHORT TERM IMPACT ON POWER SECTOR - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says that the measures announced relating to India's electricity sector in the budget for FY2015 are directionally correct but in ...
Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market de ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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