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Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
 Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to both existing ship owners and potential investors a lot of insecurity for what is in place for the second half of 2014, as well as further disbelief to those voices that inspired by the last quarter of 2013, were calling for a stable market during 2014.
Looking back to the beginning of the year we can say that from the month of February until the time of this writing, with the exception of a small rally, the market has struggled for the greater part, with the BDI returning to below 1,000 points. More specifically, in December last year and while the Index stood above 2,000 points, the overall sentiment was calling for an equally strong market in 2014, which never came.
The market has in fact followed a persistent downward trend until mid-February when we started seeing the first signs of improvement. The latter lasted for about a month, with the BDI peaking for the year within this period but still remaining below 2,000 points, and soon after that the downward trend resumed, bringing us to today.
Seeing the low levels the freight market has been fairing, most would normally expect that second-hand prices would have followed course, but it seems that it took a while before we started seeing the first discounts off last done sales and even the levels at which most vessels come in the market today still don’t reflect the current freight environment. There are in fact cases of modern Handymax to Panamax tonnage where inspection interest remains high allowing owners to hold firm on their asking price, while at the same time there are currently a lot more sales candidates from the Far East.
On the other hand, there are those who are more conservative and therefore unwilling to accept Seller’s ideas. Besides the fact that the current price levels make no sense to them, as long as these subdued freight rates persist, they are also very sceptic when it comes to the number of deliveries set to enter service within the next couple of years, predicting that a renewed overcapacity problem will most probably surface possibly creating another market bottom. Should they be proven right, we will certainly witness another round of softening asset values, both in the second hand and the new building market, especially if scrapping activity remains at the low levels we have been witnessing during the past months and despite those sky high demo prices around.
It is always both risky and difficult to make predictions and nobody could say with certainty what the next 6 months of 2014 hold for the market. And despite the fact that things have been far from rosy so far this year, let’s not forget that the first half of 2013 wasn’t a whole lot different with most predicting further price reductions, which nonetheless never materialized.
In terms of the overcapacity being created, let’s hope that the upcoming lower emissions rules, the Dry Docking for most of the 80’s built ships that will be due soon, as well as scrap subsidies similar to the ones offered in China, could well be some of the reasons that will restrict overcapacity. Will they nonetheless be enough to protect the market from the number of vessels soon to be delivered? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED 2.09% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 2.09 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.68 per ...
Sunday, 06 April 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEPS SLIDING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to drop this week. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is a widely followed metric that reflects the overall r ...
Friday, 04 April 14
UNITED STATES COAL OUTPUT UP 5.4% IN PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 03 April 14
PANAMAX SECTOR IS WATCHING A SEVERE DROP IN RATES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
A further weaker sentiment for the Supras as well in both hemispheres this week with oversupply of tonnage being the major headline. Tra ...
Wednesday, 02 April 14
CHINA: ARBITRATION CLAUSES IN BILLS OF LADING UNDER CHINESE LEGAL PRACTICE - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Successful incorporation of a charterparty arbitration clause into the bills of lading is not a straight forward matte ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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