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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Wednesday, 02 April 14
BPI BREAKING BELOW THE 1,000 PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS - INTERMODAL
Any resistance put forth by the Dry Bulk market the week prior was succumbed this time round. All indices slid and losses were noted across the ...
Tuesday, 01 April 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 11.95 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: In the week ended 31 March 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, total 2 ...
Monday, 31 March 14
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2008 - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for almost six years in the three-month period to February 2014, ...
Monday, 31 March 14
COAL SWAP FOR Q1 2015 DELIVERY HAS CLOSED 4.76% HIGHER COMPARED Q2 14 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 gained this pa ...
Monday, 31 March 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 14 DELIVERY LOST 1.17% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 1.17 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.38 per m ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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