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Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government target of 200 Gigawatts (GW) nuclear power capacity by 2030 due to a number of constraints. The report, titled 'Are China's nuclear power plans achievable?', concludes that while there will be significant progress, with nuclear capacity increasing from 14.6 GW in 2013 to 175 GW by 2030, the missed targets will translate into opportunities for coal producers to capture additional demand growth.
Mr Gavin Thompson, Head of Asia Pacific Gas & Power research for Wood Mackenzie says, "China's environmental measures will drive notable nuclear capacity growth. Additionally, uranium supply will be available for China. However, remaining challenges will result in nuclear falling short of government targets. The government targets 200 GW of nuclear capacity, which would make up 11% of the power generation mix by 2030. In reality, we forecast nuclear capacity to reach 175 GW by then, making up just ten percent of the power generation mix: equivalent to a 2.3% annual growth, from 14.6 GW of nuclear capacity in 2013."
Wood Mackenzie says that by 2030, China's nuclear capacity will account for 30% of the world's total nuclear fleet. Mr Thompson adds, "Putting things into context, in 2013 China made up a mere 4.5% of the global nuclear fleet. Therefore the growth we expect in this timeframe is phenomenal, even if targets are not met."
"What is noteworthy about our forecast is that despite environmental measures pushing for a reduction in coal-fired power generation in China, a shortfall in nuclear capacity will create additional opportunities for coal suppliers, on top of coal remaining the dominant source of base-load electricity," Thompson explains.
Wood Mackenzie's nuclear generation forecast reveals a 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) gap of base-load electricity supply. Coal is expected to meet 125 TWh of the gap while natural gas and renewables accounts for the remainder. Though natural gas production and imports will significantly increase, it will be insufficient to prevent coal from accounting for 64% of the power generation mix by 2030. The report highlights that although coal's share will decline from 75% in 2013, due to the rapid growth in natural gas and renewables capacity, coal will still see net volume growth. Additionally, the one percent upside for coal from nuclear not meeting targets will translate to an additional coal demand of 63 million tonnes per year (mmtpa) by 2025 and 55 mmtpa by 2030.
"Our expectations for a lower level of installed nuclear capacity compared to the government's target are based on a number of factors: operational and siting challenges; constraints on the pace of local nuclear technology development; lack of skilled and trained personnel; lack of supporting infrastructure for uranium fuel fabrication and disposal; and a lack of full support by the public in building inland plants. As such, it's likely that some of the planned and proposed capacity build will be delayed or cancelled," Thompson elaborates.
Mr Thompson concludes, "We took into account these challenges that hold back the development of nuclear but still see China making incredible progress and coming close to government targets of 200 GW by 2030. Our nuclear outlook for China reinforces Wood Mackenzie's view that coal will continue to play a dominant role in power generation in the foreseeable future, even with the successful implementation of new environmental measures. While nuclear will moderate the growth in coal-fired generation, China's coal story is far from over."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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