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Wednesday, 23 April 14
EUROPE WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
 A ban on Russian gas imports to the EU would cause substantial disruption to Europe's economy and industry, Fitch Ratings says. In the immediate aftermath, the region would suffer from gas shortages and high prices due to its limited ability to reduce demand, source alternative supplies and transport gas to the most affected countries. A surge in gas prices after a ban would probably also have knock-on effects on electricity, coal and oil prices. Industry would bear the brunt of supply shortages as household demand would be given priority.
A lengthy ban on Russian gas is a low-probability, but high-impact scenario. Russia supplies around 27% of Europe's gas and, given the high cost a ban would impose on all sides, we believe it would take a severe deterioration in the Ukraine crisis for it to happen. A temporary disruption just affecting gas supplies via Ukraine is a more likely scenario, for which Europe is better prepared due to high reserves and the recent opening of a new pipeline from Russia to Germany.
In the event of a lengthy ban imposed by either Europe or Russia, gas-intensive sectors such as steel and chemicals would be most affected. This would accelerate the closure or mothballing of capacity that is suffering from low profitability due to competition from low-cost energy jurisdictions such as the US or Middle East. In particular, issuers without geographic and product diversification would be most at risk of adverse rating action.
In 2013 Russia supplied 145bcm of gas to Europe, which would have great difficulty in sourcing alternative supplies. Increased European gas production and North African piped gas could offset a small proportion of this. Tapping into the global LNG market would yield limited volumes as Europe's Russian gas demand equates to nearly half of the world's LNG production, which is already mostly tied to long-term supply contracts. Hence, gas and other energy prices could surge.
In theory, Europe has plenty of unused LNG regasification capacity, which could help replace some Russian supplies. But the majority of plants are located in Southern Europe and the UK, far away from the Central and Eastern European countries that are most reliant on Russian gas. The European gas networks suffer from bottlenecks, which limit the ability to transport gas across borders.
Demand reduction initiatives would only be of limited benefit. Japan was able to reduce power demand by 4.7% following the Fukushima disaster, but this was partly weather-related and achieving that level of reduction across 28 countries with their own agendas and exposures would be far harder.
For more details on the impact that a ban on Russian gas would have on Europe, please see the report "Living Without Russian Gas - Replacing Russian Gas in the Short-term" published today and available from www.fitchratings.com. The report is the first in a series that will examine the potential impact on European utilities and how Europe could reduce its energy reliance on Russia in the longer term.
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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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