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Wednesday, 23 April 14
EUROPE WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
 A ban on Russian gas imports to the EU would cause substantial disruption to Europe's economy and industry, Fitch Ratings says. In the immediate aftermath, the region would suffer from gas shortages and high prices due to its limited ability to reduce demand, source alternative supplies and transport gas to the most affected countries. A surge in gas prices after a ban would probably also have knock-on effects on electricity, coal and oil prices. Industry would bear the brunt of supply shortages as household demand would be given priority.
A lengthy ban on Russian gas is a low-probability, but high-impact scenario. Russia supplies around 27% of Europe's gas and, given the high cost a ban would impose on all sides, we believe it would take a severe deterioration in the Ukraine crisis for it to happen. A temporary disruption just affecting gas supplies via Ukraine is a more likely scenario, for which Europe is better prepared due to high reserves and the recent opening of a new pipeline from Russia to Germany.
In the event of a lengthy ban imposed by either Europe or Russia, gas-intensive sectors such as steel and chemicals would be most affected. This would accelerate the closure or mothballing of capacity that is suffering from low profitability due to competition from low-cost energy jurisdictions such as the US or Middle East. In particular, issuers without geographic and product diversification would be most at risk of adverse rating action.
In 2013 Russia supplied 145bcm of gas to Europe, which would have great difficulty in sourcing alternative supplies. Increased European gas production and North African piped gas could offset a small proportion of this. Tapping into the global LNG market would yield limited volumes as Europe's Russian gas demand equates to nearly half of the world's LNG production, which is already mostly tied to long-term supply contracts. Hence, gas and other energy prices could surge.
In theory, Europe has plenty of unused LNG regasification capacity, which could help replace some Russian supplies. But the majority of plants are located in Southern Europe and the UK, far away from the Central and Eastern European countries that are most reliant on Russian gas. The European gas networks suffer from bottlenecks, which limit the ability to transport gas across borders.
Demand reduction initiatives would only be of limited benefit. Japan was able to reduce power demand by 4.7% following the Fukushima disaster, but this was partly weather-related and achieving that level of reduction across 28 countries with their own agendas and exposures would be far harder.
For more details on the impact that a ban on Russian gas would have on Europe, please see the report "Living Without Russian Gas - Replacing Russian Gas in the Short-term" published today and available from www.fitchratings.com. The report is the first in a series that will examine the potential impact on European utilities and how Europe could reduce its energy reliance on Russia in the longer term.
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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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