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Wednesday, 23 April 14
EUROPE WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
 A ban on Russian gas imports to the EU would cause substantial disruption to Europe's economy and industry, Fitch Ratings says. In the immediate aftermath, the region would suffer from gas shortages and high prices due to its limited ability to reduce demand, source alternative supplies and transport gas to the most affected countries. A surge in gas prices after a ban would probably also have knock-on effects on electricity, coal and oil prices. Industry would bear the brunt of supply shortages as household demand would be given priority.
A lengthy ban on Russian gas is a low-probability, but high-impact scenario. Russia supplies around 27% of Europe's gas and, given the high cost a ban would impose on all sides, we believe it would take a severe deterioration in the Ukraine crisis for it to happen. A temporary disruption just affecting gas supplies via Ukraine is a more likely scenario, for which Europe is better prepared due to high reserves and the recent opening of a new pipeline from Russia to Germany.
In the event of a lengthy ban imposed by either Europe or Russia, gas-intensive sectors such as steel and chemicals would be most affected. This would accelerate the closure or mothballing of capacity that is suffering from low profitability due to competition from low-cost energy jurisdictions such as the US or Middle East. In particular, issuers without geographic and product diversification would be most at risk of adverse rating action.
In 2013 Russia supplied 145bcm of gas to Europe, which would have great difficulty in sourcing alternative supplies. Increased European gas production and North African piped gas could offset a small proportion of this. Tapping into the global LNG market would yield limited volumes as Europe's Russian gas demand equates to nearly half of the world's LNG production, which is already mostly tied to long-term supply contracts. Hence, gas and other energy prices could surge.
In theory, Europe has plenty of unused LNG regasification capacity, which could help replace some Russian supplies. But the majority of plants are located in Southern Europe and the UK, far away from the Central and Eastern European countries that are most reliant on Russian gas. The European gas networks suffer from bottlenecks, which limit the ability to transport gas across borders.
Demand reduction initiatives would only be of limited benefit. Japan was able to reduce power demand by 4.7% following the Fukushima disaster, but this was partly weather-related and achieving that level of reduction across 28 countries with their own agendas and exposures would be far harder.
For more details on the impact that a ban on Russian gas would have on Europe, please see the report "Living Without Russian Gas - Replacing Russian Gas in the Short-term" published today and available from www.fitchratings.com. The report is the first in a series that will examine the potential impact on European utilities and how Europe could reduce its energy reliance on Russia in the longer term.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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