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Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic growth. A couple of decades ago bulk shipping was mainly reliant on imports from the US, EU as well as other OECD members, whereas countries such as China have now taking top spot on the podium accounting for the lion’s share of seaborne trade, attracting raw materials from all over the world as their appetite for infrastructure development has followed an almost exponential path. Iron Ore, Coal and Crude Oil which together comprise the largest chunk of seaborne trade volumes all rely primarily on Chinese demand nowadays. Chinese imports now account for 38% of global seaborne trade volumes for the 5 major dry bulk commodities, while in some commodities, such iron ore, this percentage is over 69%.
Over the past couple of weeks how ever there has been a storm brewing in the distance, instigated by the growing concerns related to shadow banking in China and the problems it has caused in the real estate sector as well as on the performance of dollar denominated bonds. The non-bank lending that helped homebuilders and property developers fuel part of the nation’s double digit GDP growth over the past decade, is now under threat. What’s more is that this growing threat is more widely spread then just the small scale risky businesses that took up most of these loans, as several prominent companies and banks hold a stake and therefore exposure to any and all defaults that may take place. With the collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. earlier this month and Shanghai Chari Solar Energy Science & Technology Co’ s defaulting on its debt more recently, many see more of the around 18 bonds from Chinese developers, which are considered as distressed, taking a similar route. This may well end up being just a small rough patch, however there is a risk that due to these most recent developments we could be facing a considerable tightening of credit in the country and a slowdown of at least most of the small scale development projects. It is interesting to note that home prices in China have risen b y as much as 60% percent since the 4 trillion yuan of fiscal stimulus provided by the government in 2008 and as financial tightening starts to become more of a reality, more and more of the thousands of constructed apartment blocks across the country could start to sit empty, leaving little incentive for further construction and investment from at least the private sector.
All this adding to the already voiced concerns regarding the problems still being faced in the US and Europe, and many are starting to feel less confident as to the path of the global economy and subsequently the growth of international trade this year. There may well be other champions out there amongst the BRIICS, yet countries such as India, which many see as the next in line to take the reins as champions of economic development, are currently now here close to filling up any gap that could be left behind from any waning demand from China. As things stand, China still plays a pivotal role in the growth of seaborne trade and without its support we will likely face a short period of stagnation similar to that of the 90’s. With high hopes having been placed on the performance of the shipping industry this year, it now looks as though it’s may be time to reconsider. Although the order book for most segments has dropped dramatically over the past two years there is a very different threat that needs to be overcome now. The growth in demand that we have been accustomed to over the past years could possibly start to diminish and in the case of slower growth in the seaborne trade of dry bulk commodities such as Iron Ore and Co al, many of the recently placed orders would be entering service to cover a non-existent requirement for extra capacity despite being less of them then in the past.
They way things are for the time being, there seems to be little insight of major trouble surfacing and we are still on tracking for an overall better performance than that of 2013. There are still many who keep a bullish view as to the prospects of the Chinese economy and they may well be right. Nevertheless any “sneeze” like the one noted during early March and the dry bulk freight index takes a no table hit. The problems being faced might no t be of imminent concern but they are there on the horizon and very real. Growth and leverage are currently the main concerns for China and the shipping industry should keep a close eye on both of these as they could spell for considerable trouble down the line if not addressed properly.
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET STRUGGLED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market struggled throughout the week but the poor performance across the board didn't allow for any positive reversal, pushing ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.90 MMT OF POWER PLANT AND SEMI-SOFT COKING COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 7 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensla ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
RBCT SHIPPED 53.79% MORE COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 6.90 million to ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
APRIL 2014 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST SINCE JANUARY 2010
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 2.20 / MT to ...
Monday, 07 April 14
WEEKLY SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLAIMS EDGE FALL; TREND NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 lost on month, day and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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