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Thursday, 27 March 14
PANAMAX : SEEMS TO HEAD FURTHER DOWN; CAPESIZE : ANOTHER CHOPPY AND UNPREDICTABLE WEEK - FEARNLEYS AS


Handy
A weaker sentiment for the smaller size as well, with reduced activity in the Atlantic where Owners have to face significantly lower returns. Owners in the USG suffering the most, where fronthaul is down 20% w-o-w to around 20k/day and trip across at 15k. That is for those able to find it. Continent holding slightly better where 17k level achievable for trips to east Med. Despite some uncertainty in the Crimea, Med holding fairly well as does South Atlantic with above 14 + 400 done to the east. Overall a gradually negative trend is about to be established in the Far East with a growing list of open positions and reduced volumes of fresh requirements. Indonesian coal still moving in the 13-14k range, but more owners looking for coverage in short or medium period in the mid 14 area.

Panamax
Panamax market seems to head further down, lack of fresh requirements and China seems not to buy the expected grain from South America, due to price and/or quality matters. This trade normally absorb a significant amount of Panamax tonnage on fronthaul. The iron ore from Brazil also mainly covered on Capes. Atlantic is consequently flooded with prompt tonnage. Atlantic rounds are fixed in the 5-6k region depending duration some even less. Vessels ballasting from USG further south and fronthaul paying mid 15k plus a 550k bonus. Pacific upto now holding a more steady pace, covered in the 10-11k levels, but for how long. Period trading recently fixed in 14-14,5k for 1 year but seems to be under pressure as well, paper values not looking god for Q2. Short term we expect still oversupply of tonnage and lack of cargoes.

Capesize
The Cape market has experienced another choppy and unpredictable week. Although there has been less activity on the Tubarao/China route, rates have held steady between USD 26 and 27 PMT. T/A rates maintain their levels at about 25k/day. The West Australia market, whilst being extremely actively fixed, has been the volatile route. C5 has seen a high of USD 12 PMT, and a recent low of 10 PMT. This represents a loss of about 10k on the TCE for a BCI 180 dwt vessel. This fluctuation has driven (and been driven by) significant paper sell-offs. April and Q2 FFA contracts lost USD 3,740 and 3,000, respectively, on Tuesday. It is difficult to tell whether this represents bearish sentiment toward the front end, or simply profit taking from some of the bigger traders. At the time of writing, the FFA market has stabilized somewhat, and what happens next is difficult to predict.
Source:
FEARNLEYS AS



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