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Friday, 21 March 14
DRY BULK MARKET STAYS ON RECOVERY MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market has reached new year heighs, as a result of renewed Capesize demand. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended yesterday's session up by a solid 51 points, now standing at 1,621 points which is a new high for the year. The main reason for this has been the booming Capesize market, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) rising by an impressive 147 points on the day and reaching 3,129 points. By contrast, the recent Panamax lucklustre performance hasn't yet been remedied, while smaller ship classes have kept on their upward trajectory, but a rather slow pace.

In its latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnleys, commenting on the Capesize market noted that "rates have recovered somewhat after the paper sell off last Wednesday. West Australia to China rates have climbed back toward USD 11 PMT, and at the time of writing, rates in the mid USD 11´s are being rumoured fixed for mid April dates, which represents a healthy push. Saldanha Bay to China has similarly witnessed gains of about USD 1, whilst rates for Tubarao/China have held steady at around USD 27 PMT. Consistent volume across all basins should see rates hold up or increase in the coming weeks. The forward curve appears more balanced as the steep contango to spot has been narrowed. There has been notably less period activity this week. However, with Q3 FFA contracts pushing above the 28k market, it may not be long before we see the 2H of 2014 valued above 30k, bring more charterers (and owners) back to secure longer term cover", the shipbroker mentioned.

On the Panamax front, Fearnleys added that "while last week came with strong activity in ECSA and rising activity in the Atlantic market, it all disappeared this week. Monday morning started slow with little fresh requirements and it continued that way. Now we see many spot vsls on the Continent having to drop anchor and wait for interesting business proposals. Same situation in the USG where spot ships compete for cargoes that would require one more week of idling. The Atlantic index is around USD 6k, but that is subject to finding a cargo at all. The encouraging signs we saw last week from ECSA also disappeared. Early April grain cargoes Santos/nprc is now done at USD 39.50 pmt, down around 2 dollars from last week. The Pacific on the other hand is more positive, nopac and Australia are both active and ships gets around 12k daily. Also the period market is holding up, 1 year periods still going around 14k and more for very nice ships".

Finally, in the Handy markets, Fearnleys stated that "from a slight improvement in the Atlantic to a more mixed picture mid week. North Atlantic rounds showing softening signs whereas South Atlantic is on the rise. Trips from USG to Med under pressure - down to 17k but fronthaul USG/China done up to strong 25k/day. ECSA business improving for the owners, now able to achieve around 15 + 550 bss APS for trips out. Pacific has been strong w-o-w but also showing some signs of weakness, in particular for vessels open in Singapore due to the high number of tonnage carrying sand into Singapore. For Indo/India rounds vessel open Spore fixed around 15k levels. Indo/China rounds paying a bit less compare to India levels at around 14k. Short period up to a year moving up to high 14´s", the shipbroker concluded.

In a separate report, commenting on the demolition markets, which could very well prove crucial to the sustained recovery of the dry bulk market, shipbroker Intermodal said that "the same story describes the demolition market for yet another week. Numbers are going higher, activity remains limited and the entire market is still waiting for a downward correction to the recent rally which has yet to materialize. Prices have even surpassed 500$/ldt, which is what happened in one instance so far but still shows the strength and the momentum of the current market. Despite the small correction of the Rupee against the US Dollar this past week, the Indian currency is still trading at very good levels, fact that reassures local cash buyers and allows them to increase their bids even higher. Even though the overall market activity is still slow, Bangladesh appears to have secured one unit and therefore a piece of the action, while breakers in Pakistan have remained fairly quiet this week, holding their offers stable despite some good performance of the local currency. Further to the East, there was finally some action in China, but local prices are still stalling at the low 300 $/ldt with no big chance of offers increasing anytime soon. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 330-475$/ldt and dry units received about 320-470$/ldt", Intermodal concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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