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Thursday, 13 March 14
HANDY: THE FAR EAST MARKET IS IN AN UPWARD TREND - FEARNRESEARCH


Handy
Atlantic is a bit under pressure for spot tonnage, but the underlying sentiment is positive for the short medium future. 2-3 legs are done at 12, 750. Fronthaul typically at 19k. The Far East market is in an upward trend, with few ppt vessels available. For short period vessels open N.China and S.China mid 14´s is achievable. NOPAC runs in the mid 13k where trips via Indo to EC India paying low 15k. Vessel in WCI can achieve around 12k for trips to Feast where vessels in MEG and Red Sea were fixed at around 14k for same direction.

Panamax
The recent optimism driven by the "caper" and the paper has evaporated with further negative support from a clear lack of fresh requirements. The poor trend is obvious in the Atlantic where Owners are willing to take 5k on T/C for a short run, and less on voyage. Chrtrs have a growing list of candidates to select from, but as Owners are reluctant to fix there could be pockets giving better returns. However, optimism is still alive among all the Owners of the substantial number of vessels heading for ECSA grain to catch a Brazilian contango. Rates have in fact improved to 17k + 700 GBB APS ECSA and well above 41 pmt for April loading. The eastern hemisphere is softening for the same reasons, lack of activity and/or repositioning for ECSA grains. Typical levels at 10-11k. NOPAC activity is scarce. The forward curve has lost momentum, whereas period rates still hover in the 14-15 range for short period up to a year.

Capesize
A tumultuous week for the big ships, which has seen significant value chipped off the forward curve (Q4 down $4,500 w-o-w) and as of Wednesday, a significant correction in physical rates. (The West Australia index rose to low $11´s before sharply correcting to $9 PMT levels at the time of writing.) The week began with Iron Ore plunging to $104 PMT (62% FE CFR Tianjin), the largest daily loss since 2009, amid talks of a credit squeeze and mounting port stockpiles in China. The arguments will continue as to whether this commodity price correction will have a bullish (cheaper relative foreign iron ore availability) versus bearish (signs of a general reduction in demand) impact on cargo flow but what is undeniable is that a few more questions are being posed. In light of this, it is perhaps not surprising that we saw a 5-year deal on a nice 180kdwt ship at 28k/day fail early this week. Further losses on the paper may see more charterers retreating to reassess their period plays.
Source:
Fearnresearch



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