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Friday, 28 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY BUT STEADILY FINDS ITS FOOTING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market, hit by the low seasonal demand which is a typical characteristic of the first quarter of each year, is beginning to emerge from the shadows as of late. During the past few days, the market's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been on a slow, yet steady rise, ending yesterday's session, once again on the upside, reaching 1,250 points. Capesizes were the dominant force yesterday, with the respective Baltic Capesize Index gaining 137 points on the day to reach 2,049 points. Panamaxes were still suffering, while the other two smaller segments, i.e. the Supramax and Handysize ones, were steady on the day.

In an announcement issued yesterday on the occasion of its 2013 results, dry bulk ship owner Pacific Basin, noted that the cyclical upturn of the dry bulk market has started. According to Mr. Mats Berglund, CEO of Pacific Basin, “dry bulk shipping in the first half of 2013 experienced its weakest market conditions since 1986, while an improved second half demonstrated encouraging early signs of a cyclical upturn with increased rate volatility".

In a separate weekly report, shipbroker Fearnleys, commented on the Capesize market that "Cape paper continues to be aggressively bought and it appears the physical has been ´kickstarted´. Some gains on the West Australia/China and Tub/China route have been witnessed in the last few days (fixing slightly north of 9 PMT and 21 PMT respectively at the time of writing). The steep contango to spot continues to widen. Q3 FFA contracts have soared up to USD 26, 250 while the rear end of the curve has also pushed up with Cal 15 trading at nearly USD 24k. The market is pricing in increased iron ore supply from West Australia set for Q2, and if this displaces domestic Chinese production, it will create a very favourable environment for Capes. We are already witnessing the iron ore price declining to its current level USD 116 PMT (62% CFR Tianjin). Period rates are reflecting the paper, and USD 25, 500 is being bid on good units for period of 2 years now", the shipbroker said.

It added that "the Panamax market has continued to decline in the Atlantic. Some owners are willing to take the lower levels whereas others are holding back and waiting for a better tomorrow. T/A rounds are now being fixed at levels around 6-7k depending on the trade on T/C, whereas voyage rates are easily 50% less. Ships able to breach INL are in for a small premium. In the Eastern hemisphere the week started off positive, via a wait and see mode to gradually become weaker. Pacific rounds are being fixed in region of USD 11-12k for NOPAC, less for Indo/India. With a huge number of ships in ballast for ECSA grain business, the recent upward trend has changed to a negative. 15+500 APS is the going number / 39 pmt. The gap between spot and period market is still significant. A Kamsarmax was reported fixed for one year at USD 15,500 bss Spore delivery, another 14200+425 GBB bss Cape Town whereas good Panamaxes should be able to get high 13´s for same. Expectations for ECSA grains are still alive", Fearnleys said.

Finally, on the Handy markets, the shipbroker said that "the Atlantic handy/supra market experienced a downward trend this week but not a dramatic one. TA rates are down around USD 800 w-o-w lead by less activity and fewer fresh cargoes to be fixed. In the Pacific however we see rates coming up a bit. Coal cargoes for early March dates have been covered and prompt ships open in Singapore area are able to achieve a good 14k for Indo coal rounds. NoPac rounds are being fixed at around USD 10k for ships with good specs and the activity for short periods are again back in the market. Owners are asking 13k for short periods bss Feast delivery while some chrts are holding a bit back before willing to come close to those levels".

Meanwhile, on the demolition front, where things have slowed down considerably as a result of improved market sentiment, shipbroker Intermodal noted that the market "is still reigned by Indian breakers, who currently appear to have ousted the rest of the competition from the race of securing demo candidates. As a matter of fact, with the exception of a couple of vessels, the rest of the deals reported this past week appear to have ended up in Indian hands. Breakers in the country have been enjoying the stability of the local currency, which posted its biggest winning streak against the US Dollar in the past couple of months after strengthening for three days in a row to this morning. At the time domestic steel mills have been preparing for another price hike, fact which offers further assertion to breakers operating in the country that their bids have been moving towards the right direction. While Bangladesh has managed to keep its prices stable, China and Pakistan appear to have no intention to compete at these high levels, with the former allowing for the gap  between themselves and India to climb to over 120 $/ldt. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 340-470$/ldt and dry units received about 330-460$/ldt.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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