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Thursday, 27 February 14
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN THE ATLANTIC


Handy
The Atlantic handy/supra market experienced a downward trend this week but not a dramatic one. TA rates are down around USD 800 w-o-w lead by less activity and fewer fresh cargoes to be fixed. In the Pacific however we see rates coming up a bit. Coal cargoes for early March dates have been covered and prompt ships open in Singapore area are able to achieve a good 14k for Indo coal rounds. NoPac rounds are being fixed at around USD 10k for ships with good specs and the activity for short periods are again back in the market. Owners are asking 13k for short periods bss Feast delivery while some chrts are holding a bit back before willing to come close to those levels.

Panamax
The Panamax market has continued to decline in the Atlantic. Some owners are willing to take the lower levels whereas others are holding back and waiting for a better tomorrow. T/A rounds are now being fixed at levels around 6-7k depending on the trade on T/C,  whereas voyage rates are easily 50% less. Ships able to breach INL are in for a small premium. In the Eastern hemisphere the week started off positive, via a wait and see mode to gradually become weaker. Pacific rounds are being fixed in region of USD 11-12k for NOPAC, less for Indo/India. With a huge number of ships in ballast for ECSA grain business, the recent upward trend has changed to a negative. 15+500 APS is the going number / 39 pmt. The gap between spot and period market is still significant. A  Kamsarmax was reported fixed for one year at USD 15,500 bss Spore delivery, another 14200+425 GBB bss Cape Town whereas good Panamaxes should be able to get high 13´s for same. Expectations for ECSA grains are still alive.

Capesize
Cape paper continues to be aggressively bought and it appears the physical has been ´kickstarted´. Some gains on the West  Australia/China and Tub/ China route have been witnessed in the last few days (fixing slightly north of 9 PMT and 21 PMT respectively at the time of writing). The steep contango to spot continues to widen.  Q3 FFA contracts have soared up to USD 26,250 while the rear end of the curve has also pushed up with Cal 15 trading at nearly USD 24k. The market is pricing in increased iron ore supply from West Australia set for Q2, and if this displaces domestic Chinese production, it will create a very favourable environment for Capes. We are already witnessing the iron ore price declining to its current  level USD 116 PMT (62% CFR Tianjin). Period rates are reflecting the paper, and USD 25,500 is being bid on good units for period of 2 years now.
Source: Fearnleys AS



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