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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET STRUGGLED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market struggled throughout the week but the poor performance across the board didn't allow for any positive reversal, pushing ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 2.90 MMT OF POWER PLANT AND SEMI-SOFT COKING COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 7 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensla ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
RBCT SHIPPED 53.79% MORE COAL IN MARCH 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest export coal terminal in the world, shipped 6.90 million to ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
APRIL 2014 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPS TO LOWEST SINCE JANUARY 2010
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 2.20 / MT to ...
Tuesday, 08 April 14
TALKING ABOUT A ONE-HORSE RACE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Ever since the onslaught of the financial crisis, China along with the other BRIICs, have played a pivotal role in supporting global economic gr ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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