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Wednesday, 12 February 14
2013 WAS THE YEAR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDING - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU


COALspot.com: People say that money makes the world go round. Well, can it be that it’s the other way around? Is it possible that money needs to go around regardless of the market's situation? Bulker and tanker rates are neither high nor low, while showing occasional spikes due to seasonality. 

There is an overall positive sentiment and why shouldn’t there be one? After more than 5 years of misery and disaster theories, isn’t now a good time to be positive? Aren’t fundamentals pointing to the fact that we are heading towards a period of stability? One could interpret them as such. Does that mean that the market will get less interesting? Less dynamic? Not necessarily.

2013 was the year of private equity funding, were we often found ourselves sceptical about the prices Buyers were paying. Numerous Buyers, that were dormant for years, suddenly emerged hungry for tonnage and rather aggressive on prices backed by new equity partners. It’s already been a month into 2014 and the second hand market is not showing signs of slowing down.

Newbuilding activity on the other hand is slowing down mostly due to scarcity of shipbuilding capacity, pushing buyers to look for re-sales instead of 2017 deliveries. Are we entering the year of the “resale”? The Sellers are now the bold investors that ordered ships at bottom prices 14-16 months ago and now more than ever there is a huge demand for modern assets.

So coming back to the initial question, is money needed to go around no matter what? If the market is more or less stable why are assets indeed becoming more expensive? Nine months ago a 2003 Japanese built Panamax bulker could be sold for USD 14-14.5 million. Today, a 2003 Panamax bares a price tag of USD 21-22 million upwards. MR new building slots were at USD 33-34 million 12 months ago and now they are breaking through the USD 40 million marks for a 2017 delivery. If the orders will or should go forward as scheduled is a whole different question.

So maybe stability is a sign of development. “Volatility” was always the word to be favoured by those chasing the “asset play” but for the traditional operators it is “stability” that does the trick. It’s a return back to basics once again. After years of anticipation of a new market comeback that would mirror the rates of the 2004-2008 period, what we get is a calm but dynamic environment, an environment that can accommodate different projects and approaches with manageable risk.

The reality is that capital needs to be invested and markets need to be fuelled with it. Even if assets are higher priced than what they were a year ago, they are nowhere near the levels of 6 years ago. So it still makes sense to invest. Most importantly, now you have the added bonus of positive sentiment regarding the outlook of most segments. There is confidence and there is willingness to take risks, which at the end of the day is a big part of being a ship-owner.

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations |
research@intermodal.gr

Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis |
g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima |
e.tzima@intermodal.gr

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.



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