We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 30 January 14
JPU SETTLEMENT PRICE AS A BENCHMARK WILL DECLINE IN IMPORTANCE BUT REMAIN RELEVANT, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 JPU price will remain above spot, trending closer to spot till 2015 then increasing to 2035.
Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) are approaching a crucial negotiation period with Australian coal producers in March, when large volumes are contracted annually. Wood Mackenzie says market players can expect JPU prices to remain above market prices for the foreseeable future. As for price trends, JPUs will have to pay high premiums till 2015, before dipping from 2016 to 2020. Post-2020 to the longer term, premium over spot prices will trend upwards again. This is a result of a move away from JPU-type coal in key demand markets, which also acts to reduce the significance of JPU price as a benchmark, although not negating it altogether.
In the next few years the JPU premium over market price will remain high, settling below US$7 per tonne ($/t) by 2015. Mr Prakash Sharma, Asia Pacific Coal Market Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says, "Although global oversupply persists in the overall seaborne thermal coal market, for the highly specific JPU-type coal supply, the market will be progressively tight as other customers increase their consumption of this type of coal.”
In the medium term from 2016 to 2020, Wood Mackenzie forecasts a period where the JPU premium will decline to as low as US$3.80/t over market price as additional JPU-type supply is set to come online and producers seek to gain market share by competitively pricing their product. However, growth in demand for lower quality coal in key markets is impacting producers' product mix strategies; thus reducing the availability of JPU-type coal. This combined with a longer-term decline in JPU-type supply capacity is projected to support the premium over spot prices.
Mr Rory Simington, Coal Supply Research Analyst for Wood Mackenzie elaborates, "Fast growing demand markets of China, India and South Korea, to some degree are turning away from higher priced JPU-type low ash coal towards a more inexpensive higher ash product available on the spot market. Producers who have experienced low prices throughout 2013, and have had their margins squeezed, have reduced production costs by switching much of their incremental production towards this higher ash 5,500kcal/kg NAR market. This leaves the supply growth picture for JPU-type coal fairly flat."
Japanese power plants cannot absorb a higher ash product due to their ash disposal concerns and have only used relatively small amounts of low-ash sub-bituminous coal from Indonesia. Therefore JPUs will likely still demand predominantly JPU-type coal. However, Japan's role in the Asia Pacific coal market place will diminish as its proportion of the thermal market declines from 31% to only ten percent by 2035. Consequently, this reduces the significance of JPU price as a benchmark.
Mr Sharma says, "With the fairly flat supply growth outlook for JPU-type coal, a tighter market will result for Japanese procurement. JPUs are acutely aware of this development. Since Japan is completely reliant on coal imports, JPUs are willing to pay a premium over spot prices to lock-in the price for twelve months rather than risk supply availability by switching to index-linked pricing. This is crucial as we believe nuclear capacity in Japan will not return to pre-Fukushima levels. As such, other fuels including coal will need to play a larger role."
"Even if headlines suggest Japan is increasing imports from North America to reduce reliance on Australian producers, the negotiations are still of great importance to Japan as we do not foresee North American supply satisfying their requirements to the same extent Australian producers can." North America currently supplies two percent of Japan's thermal coal requirements. By 2025, Wood Mackenzie estimates North America will still only make up less than ten percent of Japan's thermal coal requirements.
For the longer term past 2020, Wood Mackenzie forecasts premia rising steadily again as the availability of JPU-type coal continues to decline. The margin between JPU settlement price and cost of JPU-type coal production will support the development of new projects. Therefore, JPUs will have to recognise the need to offer higher premiums in order to incentivise new supply. The steadily rising premium will reach US$5.50/t by 2027 and US$10/t in 2035 as higher cost coal projects are developed.
In summary, Mr Sharma says, "Japan recognises the need to secure supply and price stability. Therefore, JPUs favour contracts to the spot market, even at a premium. This will keep JPU pricing relevant albeit playing a diminishing role as a benchmark due to the growing market proportion of higher-ash coal in the region. In the longer term post-2020, this need will translate to JPUs having to pay higher premiums so as to incentivise Australian producers to maintain supply capacity. Hence, the JPU benchmark may lose the status of price-setter but will not likely become a price-taker even if it means that the premium will persist."
Wood Mackenzie's Editor’s notes:
JPU-type coal refers to the coal type imported by Japanese Power Utilities which is prime quality bituminous thermal coal (6322kcal/kg GAR) from Australia under term contracts.
Market prices refers to New FOB Newcastle Market Price @6000kcal/kg NAR. It is used interchangeably with the term 'spot price' in this news release.
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 03 February 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Swaps prices gained for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
...
Monday, 03 February 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTRACTS FALL
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.71 percent month on month and closed at US$ 78.87 per mt as on Frid ...
Monday, 03 February 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI is fell 50 pct over last one month which seems to be one of the lowest fall in last few years.
The BDI was down by 11 ...
Friday, 31 January 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 19.2 MMST W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 31 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL ON A FALL, EXPECTED TO WORSEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is definitely in the doldrums since the start of the year, in what could only be described as a "lost" month for indus ...
|
|
|
Showing 3871 to 3875 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
|
| |
| |
|
