We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 30 January 14
JPU SETTLEMENT PRICE AS A BENCHMARK WILL DECLINE IN IMPORTANCE BUT REMAIN RELEVANT, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 JPU price will remain above spot, trending closer to spot till 2015 then increasing to 2035.
Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) are approaching a crucial negotiation period with Australian coal producers in March, when large volumes are contracted annually. Wood Mackenzie says market players can expect JPU prices to remain above market prices for the foreseeable future. As for price trends, JPUs will have to pay high premiums till 2015, before dipping from 2016 to 2020. Post-2020 to the longer term, premium over spot prices will trend upwards again. This is a result of a move away from JPU-type coal in key demand markets, which also acts to reduce the significance of JPU price as a benchmark, although not negating it altogether.
In the next few years the JPU premium over market price will remain high, settling below US$7 per tonne ($/t) by 2015. Mr Prakash Sharma, Asia Pacific Coal Market Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says, "Although global oversupply persists in the overall seaborne thermal coal market, for the highly specific JPU-type coal supply, the market will be progressively tight as other customers increase their consumption of this type of coal.”
In the medium term from 2016 to 2020, Wood Mackenzie forecasts a period where the JPU premium will decline to as low as US$3.80/t over market price as additional JPU-type supply is set to come online and producers seek to gain market share by competitively pricing their product. However, growth in demand for lower quality coal in key markets is impacting producers' product mix strategies; thus reducing the availability of JPU-type coal. This combined with a longer-term decline in JPU-type supply capacity is projected to support the premium over spot prices.
Mr Rory Simington, Coal Supply Research Analyst for Wood Mackenzie elaborates, "Fast growing demand markets of China, India and South Korea, to some degree are turning away from higher priced JPU-type low ash coal towards a more inexpensive higher ash product available on the spot market. Producers who have experienced low prices throughout 2013, and have had their margins squeezed, have reduced production costs by switching much of their incremental production towards this higher ash 5,500kcal/kg NAR market. This leaves the supply growth picture for JPU-type coal fairly flat."
Japanese power plants cannot absorb a higher ash product due to their ash disposal concerns and have only used relatively small amounts of low-ash sub-bituminous coal from Indonesia. Therefore JPUs will likely still demand predominantly JPU-type coal. However, Japan's role in the Asia Pacific coal market place will diminish as its proportion of the thermal market declines from 31% to only ten percent by 2035. Consequently, this reduces the significance of JPU price as a benchmark.
Mr Sharma says, "With the fairly flat supply growth outlook for JPU-type coal, a tighter market will result for Japanese procurement. JPUs are acutely aware of this development. Since Japan is completely reliant on coal imports, JPUs are willing to pay a premium over spot prices to lock-in the price for twelve months rather than risk supply availability by switching to index-linked pricing. This is crucial as we believe nuclear capacity in Japan will not return to pre-Fukushima levels. As such, other fuels including coal will need to play a larger role."
"Even if headlines suggest Japan is increasing imports from North America to reduce reliance on Australian producers, the negotiations are still of great importance to Japan as we do not foresee North American supply satisfying their requirements to the same extent Australian producers can." North America currently supplies two percent of Japan's thermal coal requirements. By 2025, Wood Mackenzie estimates North America will still only make up less than ten percent of Japan's thermal coal requirements.
For the longer term past 2020, Wood Mackenzie forecasts premia rising steadily again as the availability of JPU-type coal continues to decline. The margin between JPU settlement price and cost of JPU-type coal production will support the development of new projects. Therefore, JPUs will have to recognise the need to offer higher premiums in order to incentivise new supply. The steadily rising premium will reach US$5.50/t by 2027 and US$10/t in 2035 as higher cost coal projects are developed.
In summary, Mr Sharma says, "Japan recognises the need to secure supply and price stability. Therefore, JPUs favour contracts to the spot market, even at a premium. This will keep JPU pricing relevant albeit playing a diminishing role as a benchmark due to the growing market proportion of higher-ash coal in the region. In the longer term post-2020, this need will translate to JPUs having to pay higher premiums so as to incentivise Australian producers to maintain supply capacity. Hence, the JPU benchmark may lose the status of price-setter but will not likely become a price-taker even if it means that the premium will persist."
Wood Mackenzie's Editor’s notes:
JPU-type coal refers to the coal type imported by Japanese Power Utilities which is prime quality bituminous thermal coal (6322kcal/kg GAR) from Australia under term contracts.
Market prices refers to New FOB Newcastle Market Price @6000kcal/kg NAR. It is used interchangeably with the term 'spot price' in this news release.
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
|
|
|
Showing 61 to 65 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
|
| |
| |
|
