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Friday, 24 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING IN START OF 2014 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market has been faltering since the start of 2014, struggling to hold its ground as low seasonal demand has hindered further growth in freight rates and has led the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to lower ground. Yesterday, the index ended with yet another decline, struggling to avert the falls, now standing at 1,271 points, down by 51 on the day. Once again, the Capesize market suffered the most, as it was down by 105 points to 1,775. Smaller declines were also evident in the remaining ship classes.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearnley's commented on the Capesize market by mentioning that there was "mixed sentiment for the big ships, as spot softens from already low levels whilst period units remain in demand and fetch solid premiums. A considerable number of ballasters combined with very limited fresh ore and coal volumes from S.Africa and Brazil gives little promise for spot levels to improve short-term. The WAust/China trade has again come to life, but only to the extent that expected daily return for such rounds does not fall much below usd 10k. With average spot value hovering around usd 12k, forward faith is well reflected in prompt 180000-tonners fetching in excess of usd 20k for 12 months".

On the Panamax market, Fearnley's noted that "this week the activity came down dramatically in both hemispheres. Last week much of the activity was driven by grain majors fixing period tonnage, but this week it seems they are taking a break. There has been little spot fixing in the Atlantic and the rates are dropping. Trans Atlantic rounds now pay around usd 13000 and fronthauls around usd 22500. In the Pacific rates has come to around usd 9000, and as owners refuse to fix at charterers low fixing ideas we see more and more ballasters heading towards South America. They all hope that a record crop and harvest in South America soon will lift the market. Not so much to report from the period market this week, but levels remain around usd 14000 for 1 yr tc", said the shipbroker.

Finally, in the Handy markets, "with the Chinese New Year approaching the activity and rate levels are sliding in both hemispheres. Rates in the Atlantic have knocked off some USD 1000 wow for all trades and the Feastern market is experiencing the same tendency. The list of available tonnage is outnumbering the cargoes and rates are softening. One trade that has taken pounding is Indonesia/India coal where a 53k dwt fixed USD 6k+60k GBB. Rates are similar for the NoPac trade and players do not expect any changes until the holidays in China are over", Fearnley's concluded.

As it turns out, demolition activity as a means to alleviate tonnage supply, will continue to play a major role in the dry bulk market's future prospects. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Golden Destiny, "scrap prices keep their firm levels of excess $400/ldt in the Indian subcontinent region with Bangladesh, after the elections, competing hard with India. Pakistan still shows weak activity, while Chinese shiprecyclers are seeking hard to secure new tonnage under the current spike of rates – up to $10/ldt-, but their price differential with Alang-Chittagong breakers remains large at almost $100/ldt. The second week of January ends with deals reported at very firm levels in India and Bangladesh, but scrapping activity is soft after the recent upturn of the freight market.

In terms of deadweight sent for scrap, there has been 21% weekly decrease with 2 demolition deals reported for large vessel sizes, 1 capesize bulker and 1 aframax tanker. India is reportedly to have won 4 of the 6 demolition transactions, 1 Bangladesh, 1 China. Benchmark scrap prices in the Indian subcontinent region: $405-415/ldt for dry and $435-$445/ldt for wet cargo. Scrap prices in China hover at $340/ldt for dry and $350/ldt for wet cargo. At a similar week in 2013, demolition activity was up by 183%, in terms of the reported number of transactions, when 17 vessels had been reported for scrap of total deadweight 1,009,630 tons with 7 disposals for bulkers, 3 tankers, 1 2 gas tankers, 4 liners and 1 container. Ship-breakers in Indian subcontinent region had been offering similar levels of the current year, $400-410/ldt for dry and $425-$435/ldt for wet cargo", Golden Destiny noted.

In a separate note, Lion Shipbrokers, mentioned that "rising demand and good steel prices have kept the demolition market relatively busy for one more week. The steady steel demand along with good demo rates, have driven many European owners to choose India for scrap their older tonnage and start looking for replacement tonnage in the second hand market. Pakistan still cannot compete Indian & Bangladeshi rates, attracting very few ships. We have not picked up any containerships deals for one more week mainly due to draft issues & weather conditions in Subcontinent. In Bangladesh, elections are finally over with the ruling winning thus leading to a better and steadier market. Nevertheless due to the Instability of the past, cash buyers are concentrating into smaller tonnage. In China the market is declining as steel prices are getting lower and everyone is preparing for the Chinese New Year holidays. Turkey rates are also decreasing down as the local currency is declining against the US dollar leading to an even slower market", the shipbroker concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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