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Friday, 17 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS DECLINE, BOUNCES BACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a rough start to the New Year for the dry bulk market, which was supposed to be on the verge of rallying to new heights this year, on the back of improving fundamentals. The market's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) had been on a steady path of declines since the beginning of the year, effectively erasing the rally of the last few months of 2013, which brought back the smiles among ship owners. As such, the latest reversal of fortunes, if sustainable, will bring back optimism. Yesterday, the BDI managed to recover part of the loss, rising by 24 points to 1,398, on the back of a halt of declines the day before that. The main reason for the latest positive development was the rise of the Capesize segment, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) increasing by 67 points to reach 1,929.
According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley's, commenting on the Capesize sector, mentioned that "the first half of the week saw the cape indices continue to plummet in particular the C9 TA index, which lost a whopping $30k w-o-w, as Drummond Co. declared force majeure on its coal shipments from Colombia after the U.S. mining company failed to complete on time a port upgrade. The Pacific remains oversupplied and Australian ore miners remain relatively quiet deals concluded between $7.10 and $7.50 range at time of writing. Wednesday has seen a slight uptick on Tub/China rates with the prevailing rate back over the $20 pmt mark. It is noticeable that the inverse to spot has narrowed to almost par (Spot at 12888, Feb trading at 12750) and the curve maintains its strong contango with Q2 trading $15500, Q3 at $20500, and Q4 at $26500. Notable period deals include a 180k dwt vessel with decent speed and consumptions fixing for 1 year at index with a 5% premium".
Meanwhile, in the Panamax market, Fearnley's noted that "the gap between spot and period has increased in both hemispheres. The underlying optimism has been supported by a rising forward curve and major grain houses picking short period and 1-year candidates in Pacific. Owners achieve healthy 14k + del Pacific and above 15k from PMO for 1 year not all that bad considering BPI average 2013 tick above 9700. Mid week, activity in Pacific did show signs of improvement. However, now an increasing que of available tonnage are facing APS rates under 10k for Indo rounds. Strong winter in North Atlantic adding nice premium to brave Owners able to breach INL or move into ice conditions. Otherwise Atlantic seems a bit under pressure for prompt tonnage, fixing mid teens. Fronthaul in a turning point - up from about 23,500".
Finally, in the Handy markets, "in the Atlantic we have seen rates slowly sliding on lack of enough fresh business. USG/Continent still paying excess 28k and seems on an upward trend while the rest of the trades are all sliding south. Yet another quiet week in Feast and we expect same trend up to the holidays. There are number of ships open in N.China struggling to find business. Even ships in the south have been laying spot for several days. Vsls open North China are talking USD 6k for Indo-S.China rounds. The trips to India are being fixed on an APS+BB basis and rates are hovering around USD 8k+80k. WCI/MEG and South Africa rates remain firm with a shortage of available tonnage", Fearnley's concluded.
In its latest forecast, BIMCO noted that it expects dry bulk demand to grow at 4.5 to 6%, driven forward by the major bulk trades: iron ore, steam coal and coking coal, with grain in a supporting role. China remains in the driving seat, a scenario that will benefit the larger ships more than the smaller ones. "Following a rather uneventful first half of 2013, July and August were on fire, one that raged through September and October bringing Capesize rates north of USD 42,000 per day. Expanding Chinese steel production and restocking of iron ore were at the centre of the action. In 2014 and beyond, the economic and social progress in the main developing nations that seek inexpensive energy and prosperity will set the tone and affect shipping demand positively. Volatility is likely to rise as the market balance improves. Positive demand shocks will benefit owners and operators to a higher extent than in previous years. The significant oversupply of dry bulk tonnage will, however, influence the pace of the recovery as will the deliveries that follow on from the many newbuilding contracts signed during 2013", BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the ba ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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