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Wednesday, 08 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS LOOKING BRIGHTER DESPITE SLOW START TO THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI has been on a fall since the start of 2014, ending yesterday's session down to 1,876 points, experts indicate that it's only a matter of time, before a new freight rate rally emerges. After all, the first quarter of each is traditionally the slowest one for the dry bulk market. Among the encouraging signs for the market, emerged by a recent analysis from the world's leading shipbroker and research firm, Clarksons which noted that on 2011-13, total iron ore tonne-mile trade is projected to have grown on average by 5% p.a., and Chinese imports are expected to have accounted for around 60% of the expansion. More recently the second half of 2013 has seen a significant uptick in tonne-mile imports into China. These trends highlight several key drivers.
According to Clarksons, "Chinese steel production has been the most significant influence on global iron ore trade. In October 2013, global steel output totalled 134mt, up 7% y-o-y and 27% since October 2007. In the year to date, China’s steel output made up 49% of the global total. Chinese steel output has driven China’s ore tonne-mile imports, which are projected to have risen 10% p.a. on average in 2011-13 to reach close to 3,400bn tonne-miles in the year to date. The Graph of the Month shows a pick-up in ore tonne-mile imports in 2H 2013, with firm Chinese steel output growth of 13% y-o-y in September. However, steel output is not the only driver. In 2012, China’s output growth fell to around 4%, while ore imports grew 9% to 724mt; low ore prices made the price differential between domestic and international ore more favourable for imports".
Meanwhile, "outside China, steel output growth has generally been falling since 2011, and weak economic conditions in the EU led to a lower out-put. This caused a 4% fall in iron ore imports by the EU in both 2011 and 2012 (to 116mt). However, recently, steel output outside China has improved, and rose 5% y-o-y in October. The beginning of improved economic performance in the EU is expected this year to drive growth in iron ore imports by the EU for the first time since 2009, with imports now projected to grow 4% in full year 2013", the shipbroker noted.
It added that "the supply side is also a significant driver, and its seasonality often has an impact. Weather related issues can limit exports from Australia and Brazil early in the year. Whilst Brazil’s ore exports have grown only slightly in recent years, the long-haul nature of Brazil-China trade often drives tonne-mile import growth later in the year. Seasonal fluctuations led to an 11% q-o-q fall in Chinese tonne-mile imports in Q1 2013. Average Chinese imports from Brazil in August and September were 16% higher than the average in 1H 2013, which drove a Chinese ore import peak to 378bn tonne-miles in Sep-tember.
Of course, in the longer-term tonne-mile trends are also affected by the pattern of iron ore mine expansions. Since 2011, China’s tonne-mile import growth has largely been driven by a 46% growth in short-haul Australian exports. However, by the end of the decade, iron ore tonne-mile trade growth looks increasingly likely to be driven by the ramp up of mining projects further away in Brazil.
So, China’s steel output growth is the critical factor driving iron ore tonne-mile trends. However, other influences, and supply side developments in particular, can clearly be highly significant too", Clarksons concluded.
In a separate analysis, "BIMCO predicted that in the coming weeks, the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK impor ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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