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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Wednesday, 18 December 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SCALED BACK AS FREIGHT RATES RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's always been the case that each time we witness a spike in freight rates, demolition activity is decreasing, as owners are looking for more car ...
Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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