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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 30 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL TO BE PART OF INDEX DETERMINING POWER TARIFFS - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a significant move, power sector regulator CERC has decided to provide 50 per cent weightage for Indonesian coal in the benchmark index that is u ...
Friday, 27 December 13
THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED AFTER 12 JAN 2014 - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com: The government of Indonesia will implement Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal in full and consistently by January 12, 2014, said, m ...
Friday, 27 December 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 15.75 PERCENT MORE COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $2* billion worth of co ...
Thursday, 26 December 13
COAL & OIL GROUP SECURES US$ 250 MILLION FUNDING FOR ITS 1200MW THERMAL POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group has announced that it has secured additional funding of approximately Dhs. 1 billion (appro ...
Wednesday, 25 December 13
DRY BULK INDEX LOST SOME GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Softer - )
The Dry Bulk Index lost some ground this past week, on the back of activity slowing down befor ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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