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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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