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Thursday, 12 December 13
GREAT EXPECTATIONS SANCTIONED - EVA TZIMA
 News that sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be lifted sometime in the following months have shaken the markets recently. One of the world’s top oil suppliers historically and once OPEC’ s 2nd largest producer, Iran, has seen its exports squished since 2012, when both the U.S. and the European Union imposed additional sanctions against the country’s oil exports.
The sanctions that were imposed on the basis that Iran’s nuclear programme included enrichment of uranium, which if surpasses certain levels of purity can be used to develop nuclear weapons, affected extensively Iran’s economy. Following U.S.’s Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CIS ADA), a law passed in the summer of 2010 by the Congress, the E.U. also placed significant restrictions on foreign trade, financial services, energy sectors and technologies related to Iran. Additionally, the provision of insurance by firms incorporated in any E.U. member country, to Iranian-owned companies, was banned. With oil and gas production accounting for almost half of the local government’s income, the country’s current account surplus for 2012 has dropped more than 50% compared to 2011, while at the same time Iranian assets and funds were blocked due to the international sanctions.
With over 5% of the global sea borne exports coming from Iran up until 2012 and with domestic reserves placing the country at number four on the world’s largest oil reserves list, the knee jerk reaction was that lifting of these sanctions was great news for the tanker sector. Right when freight rates for the crude oil carriers have started catching a significant break, such development would come as the cherry on the top of a strengthening market and a possible recovery within 2014. As the noise has started to settle down though, it has become more evident that the outcome of all this is still very uncertain both for the timeframe during which sanctions will be lifted, as well as for the sort and scale of impact this could have on the fate of crude carriers.
The effects of Iran becoming a no-trade zone have been in tensely felt in the shipping industry, as the total restrictions for oil and gas exports have hurt seaborne trade in the region and elsewhere. On the one hand, European Union member states accounted for around 20% of Iran’s oil exports prior to the 2012 sanctions, while at the same time indirect restrictions were placed even for big importing countries of Iranian oil who didn’t impose sanctions themselves. In fact, as the U.S. targeted the country’s revenue from oil exports, it committed to cut off from the U.S. banking system any international financial institution that engaged into oil related transactions with Iran’ s central bank. That led the top importers of Iranian oil, like China, India, Japan and S. Korea, to reduce the number of Iranian crude in to their countries. This weighed further down on seaborne traded volumes and on top of that, any ship insurance cover from the sanction imposing countries was also rendered impossible; So, remove the sanctions and you get a healthier market back. Financial institutions are allowed to back up Iran related transactions, P&I clubs will start insuring cargoes and ships involved in the trade, Iranian funds t hat have been frozen all these years will be unblocked permitting for a significant liquidity boost in the oil market and crude exports both in the Med and Asia region will reach pre-2012 volumes again or even surpass them especially since Far East appetite for oil has been firing up again recently; Picture perfect for sure but don’t pop up the champagne just yet…
The reality is that the recent deal reached in Geneva will for now only allow “limited, targeted and reversible relief” from the existing sanctions. From Iran’s side, one of the main commitments involves halting enrichment of uranium over 5%. In return, world powers will put an end to specific sanctions involving the trade of petrochemicals, gold and the automotive sector, while they will also allow for $4.2bn of oil related funds to be transferred back to the country. This means that there is currently no commitment for oil related sanctions to be lifted in the near future and this is certainly a massive political hot potato for any world leader who decides to touch it, and one that cannot be easily reversed if a no sanctions path is carved. Businesses involved in sectors previously or currently affected by the sanctions will not jump to do business with Iran either. I would think that they will choose to wait for now and get involved only after a long period of time ha s passed, avoiding any back and forth on the sanction policy, as they wouldn’t want to risk seeing themselves or their funds being tainted in the process.
But irrespective of the developments surrounding the sanctions, as far as the trade of oil is concerned, the fact is that it has been the demand side of the trade driving the volumes rather than the supply. While the supply of crude coming from Iran has hit employment of tankers, in reality, the sector hasn’t suffered that long due to scarcity of cargoes but rather because of continuous subdued demand for the commodity, on the back of slowing down economies and increase in the price of oil itself. Nonetheless, the most worrying aspect in my opinion is the great expectations removal of sanctions can create in the market. The false sense of a possible demand spike that might o r might not happen, can lead to over optimistic expectations by owners and boost ordering in segments like that of VLs, the order book of which has been relatively healthy up until recently, leading to another vicious cycle of tonnage oversupply. Hopefully not.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the signific ...
Thursday, 20 February 14
SUPRAMAX: IN ASIA IS IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNED FROM APS TO DOP MARKET
Handy
The activity is back in the market after Chinese holidays. Supramax in Asia is improving significantly and turned from APS to DOP market. We ...
Wednesday, 19 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 30% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 18 February 14
PERUVIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR MINING AFFAIRS WILL BE KEY NOTE SPEAKER AT THE COLOMBIAN COAL CONFERENCE 2014
Press Release: The High Commissioner for Mining Affairs in the Presidency of the Peruvian Council of Ministers, General (R) Daniel Urresti Elera, ha ...
Monday, 17 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION IN 2013 FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS
COALspot.com: U.S coal production for 2013 totaled an estimated 996 million short tons (MMst), 21 MMst (2%) lower than in 2012. It is the first time ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- The University of Queensland
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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