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Saturday, 07 December 13
A RARE TIME IN RECENT SHIPPING MARKET HISTORY: BOTH DRY BULK AND VLCC TANKER EARNINGS ARE ON THE RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


Around this time of year, back in 2008, i.e. five years ago, the shipping markets were plagued with the aftermath of the global financial crisis that caused the biggest crash in freight markets in decades. Most carriers, both dry bulk and tankers were sidelined by their owners who chose not to operate them, as it was consting them more to run the vessels, than what the market was offering at the time.

Fast forward five years later and both the dry bulk market, as well as the wet one are experiencing positive signs of improvement, although the fundamentals aren't equally positive for the long run. Starting with the dry bulk market, the BDI has firmly rebounded once again above the 2,000-point mark, poised to end the year on a high note, with the final months of the year proving to be a happy period for most ship owners active in the dry market.

According to shipbroker Fearnleys this week, "the spike in Capesize rates that was expected and anticipated for this quarter finally became a reality and the average tc rates are approaching $30,000 p/d. The iron ore is the main driver, with Brazilian, Australian and South African exports active at the same time. This has resulted in a lack of early tonnage, and rates are still improving at the time of writing. The period rates are improving accordingly, with one year rates presently being concluded in excess of usd $20,000 p/d".

In the Panamax market, Feanleys noted that "the firm tendency continues. The Atlantic is tight for tonnage with Owners increasing their rates or holding back for the better deal tomorrow. Charterers paying $16.000 p/d for T/A and $26.000 p/d for fronthaul to cover prompt requirements. US grains is still moving at about 55 pmt. The firm sentiment is also reflected in the Eastern Hemisphere, predominantly by Indonesian coal and some short period activity. Levels from $12.000 p/d up to healthy $15.000 p/d for Aussie rounds reported. Short period up to a year at about $12.000 p/d. Seasonal social activity has not reduced activity considerably - yet".

Similarly, in the wet segment, oil demand from Asia and especially China has intensified over the past couple of months and especially during the end of October, providing solid ground for gains across most of the large crude oil tanker Eastbound routes. As such, the Far East oil demand has provided the foundation for a strong boost in freight rates for several routes, like the TCE for MEG/Japan, which almost doubled at the start of November, reaching levels of $42,000/day. Similarly, the WAF/F.East route gained by around 40% in just one day, touching the very lucrative level of USD 98,939/day.

According to Intermodal's analyst George Lazaridis, "the VL’s were the first to show the major gains from the seasonal spike in demand, with interest from the Far East clearing much of the excess tonnage and leaving prime conditions for even a profitable spike in freight rates. Despite similar not having spilled over completely to the Suez and Afras there have been notable gains there two and with the new wave of fresh inquiries rapidly poring in, November could end up being the “hottest” month yet. Suez and Afras also shoed a bit of difficulty in the first weeks of the month especially in the Black Sea/Med region, although this seems to have reversed fairly quickly and earning seem to have now returned back to normal".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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